Central Banks Recalibrating Monetary Policies
中文标题
央行重新校准货币政策
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Nomura forecasts fewer rate hikes than markets price, viewing this as a resumption of hiking cycles with policy rates near or above neutral and inflation largely cost-push. It expects a Fed hike in December then an extended hold, two ECB hikes to a 3.00% depo rate, two BOJ hikes to 1.75%, none for the BoE or BoC, and two each for Korea and India. Asia ex-Japan stays hawkish on oil, El Niño and memory prices.
- Institution
- Nomura Connects
- Published
- 10/07/2026
- Research topic
- Fed Policy · Inflation · Crude Oil (WTI)
- Time horizon
- 2028 · 2027 · 2026 · December 2026
Key arguments
- Global hiking cycles are resuming, not starting, as most policy rates are near or above neutral and inflation is largely cost-push.
- Nomura expects fewer hikes than markets across the Fed, ECB, BOJ, BoE, BoC, Australia, India and Korea.
- US growth stays robust on business investment and consumption, keeping core PCE above 3% and tilting inflation risks up.
- Japan's core CPI follows three stages to around 2% by 2028, with the second stage determining the BOJ terminal rate.
Key numbers
- Fed hike expected
- 25bp in December 2026, then hold through 2027
- ECB depo rate target
- 3.00% after hikes in December 2026 and March 2027
- BOJ policy rate target
- 1.75% after hikes in December 2026 and March 2027 (60% probability)
- Korea terminal rate
- 3.50% after two more hikes
- US core PCE
- above 3% year-on-year
Main risks
- Renewed Middle East tensions could keep oil prices elevated and cause broader inflation spillovers.
- Inflation forecasts may be wrong if second-round wage effects emerge, forcing more hikes.
- China's weak domestic demand and limited stimulus could drag regional growth.
Corresponding source evidence
We expect the Fed to deliver another hike in December.
We see Japan’s core CPI evolving in three stages towards 2028, with the second critical in determining the terminal policy rate.
· 2028With sticky in flation and a renewed rise in oil prices, we have incorporated additional rate hikes into our global monetary policy forecasts, though still signi ficantly fewer than what markets are pricing.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · FED
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Nomura Connects on 10/07/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction