Focus on Canadian housingRBC Economics

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聚焦加拿大住房 · RBC Economics

RBC Economics10/06/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Confidence in Canada's housing market came under renewed pressure in September, as escalation of the trade war with the United States and rising long-term interest rates put buyers on the defensive. Most local real estate boards reported a drop in home resales, including Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City. Home values eased in many markets; Vancouver and Fraser Valley continued their steady declines since early 2025, and Toronto's summer uptick proved temporary. Edmonton, Ottawa and Montreal saw prices stabilize. RBC expects improving affordability and a resilient economy to progressively unlock pent-up demand and support a mild recovery, but the road is likely bumpy and uneven. Toronto resales fell 5.2% month-over-month and the benchmark price 0.5%; active listings were down 9.3% year-over-year, with condos nearly a third of listings. Montreal inventory rose 20% year-over-year, with median condo prices flat and single-family up 0.4%. Vancouver resales fell nearly 8% from August and the composite MLS HPI was down 5.5% year-over-year, with further depreciation likely into 2027. Calgary held relatively steady, though condo resales fell 14.3% and prices 8.3% year-over-year.

Institution: RBC Economics
Published: 10/06/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

Escalation of the US trade war and rising long-term interest rates weakened buyer confidence across most Canadian markets in September.
Diverging local trends reflect different states of confidence, affordability, pent-up demand, demographics, job markets and inventory.
Toronto's five-month tentative recovery ended, with resales and benchmark price falling and condo oversupply sustaining downward pressure.
Vancouver's four-year slump continues; further price depreciation will likely be necessary to draw in buyers, possibly into 2027.

Key numbers

Toronto resales, September m/m: -5.2%
Toronto benchmark price, September m/m: -0.5%
Toronto active listings, September y/y: -9.3%
Montreal inventory, y/y: +20%
Vancouver composite MLS HPI, y/y: -5.5%

Main risks

Further escalation of the trade war with the United States could deepen buyer caution and delay recovery.
Rising long-term interest rates could contain housing demand, particularly in Montreal and other affordability-stretched markets.
Abundant condo supply in Toronto and Vancouver could sustain heavier downward price pressure.

Corresponding source evidence

Median condo prices were flat from a year ago in September, and increased only marginally (up 0.4%) for single-family homes.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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