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Gold steadied near USD 4,125 after hitting a seven-week low as US 10-year Treasury yields rose above 5.25%, a level rarely seen since 2002. The 30-year hit 5.58% and the 2-year 4.95%. President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,…
Based on BIS locational banking data, Asia's claims on the GCC grew faster than the rest of the world, with Hong Kong's claims rising $72bn from 2019 to Q1 2026 and the GCC's share up to 4.4% from 2.0%; Korea's share fell to 4.8% from 6.6%. Bloomberg…
The Xi-Trump summit produced only a two-month trade truce extension and an AI incident line, signalling neither Washington nor Beijing will slow the AI race and Europe is absent from the conversation. US constraints mount: two-thirds of Americans oppose data…
Higher oil prices and US yields above 5.2% are deepening Asian FX divergence. Brent stayed above $100/bbl while the dollar index rose to about 101.1, a negative terms-of-trade shock for Asia's oil importers. Asia currencies remain above Q1 2025 lows, helped…
Geopolitical fragmentation is reorganizing trade, investment and supply chains around security and resilience rather than reversing globalization. Duplicated capacity, larger inventories and higher-cost supply chains may improve resilience but reduce…
OCBC's 28 September 2026 outlook sees the RBA hiking 25bp to 4.60% on persistent core inflation and resilient demand. The Trump-Xi summit extended the US-China trade truce to 10 January 2027 with reciprocal tariff cuts on about USD30bn of goods, but rare…
State Street argues Asia's deepening domestic investor base now funds most local-currency debt and cushions equity drawdowns, but foreign investors remain the marginal price-setter. About four-fifths of Asia-Pacific cross-border portfolio assets sit outside…
OCBC's 28 Sep 2026 snapshot flags a data-heavy week capped by Friday's US nonfarm payrolls (consensus ~100k, unemployment 4.2%) and core PCE (0.3% m/m). The Trump-Xi meeting extended the trade truce to 10 January with reciprocal tariff cuts on ~USD30bn of…
President Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has revived supply-disruption fears, pushing Brent above USD 107 while global bond yields hit fresh cycle highs. Gold broke below USD 4,230 support and silver tumbled over 4% as…
OCBC revises its RBA call to a 25bp hike at the September 2026 meeting, lifting the cash rate to 4.60% from 4.35%, citing resilient labour demand (employment +39,500; hours worked +13.7mn) and high participation (67.1%). A single 25bp cut is now expected in…
The Trump-Xi summit extended the US-China trade truce by two months to 10 January 2027, high on symbolism but light on substantive breakthroughs. OCBC argues a narrow 'G2 interface' — bilateral crisis management, including a new AI dialogue — is emerging atop…
Natixis argues the November 2026 US-China summit left China with the upper hand, with the trade truce and China's rare-earth export controls deferred only to Jan. 10 instead of a year. As Xi landed, the 10-year Treasury yield rose about 16bp above 5.1%, the…
Asia FX faces a tougher external backdrop as elevated Brent crude and high global yields reinforce each other; the spot-over-front-month Brent premium has risen to about US$18/bbl from a negative spread in early September, and the US 10-year yield is above…
Global rates rose and pulled New Zealand along. Strong US data and resurgent oil pushed US yields higher, lifting NZ rates and cutting the trade-weighted index 4% below the RBNZ's September MPS assumption. Markets price about a 75% chance of an OCR hike on 28…
Westpac expects the RBA to hike the cash rate 25bp to 4.60% at its September meeting, with a split vote likely amid disagreement over trend supply capacity. August CPI is forecast at 0.4%mth with upside risk, trimmed mean at 0.2%mth. Employment rose 39.5k but…
Natixis expects euro area headline inflation at 3.55% yoy in September, up from 3.25% in August, with core at 2.55% from 2.40%. Rising energy prices are the primary driver: Brent near $102/bbl, up 51% yoy, is set to exert stronger upward pressure on headline.…
Natixis expects one more Fed hike in December and an elevated U.S. Treasury curve, keeping the Mexican peso under pressure. Banxico held its policy rate at 6.50% unanimously in September, stating it will not react mechanically to U.S. monetary policy but will…
Commodities showed resilience despite the US 10-year yield hitting a 19-year high above 5.2% and a stronger dollar. Precious metals fell about 2% with gold down 1.8% to test $4,235 support. Industrial metals gained 0.8%, led by copper up 1.5% on tight China…
Energy-market rebalancing is slipping further away. The partial Hormuz blockade, Red Sea disruption and attacks on Saudi infrastructure keep oil and gas prices elevated, lifting inflation and delaying rate cuts. Under the baseline, assuming oil below $80 from…
Saxo Bank's quick take notes Brent trading near USD 105.4 after a USD 10 weekly range, as talk of a Qatar-mediated phased Strait of Hormuz deal with Iran offsets Houthi missile attacks on Saudi cities. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.50%, its highest…