Market Quick Take - Gold slides 4 and the ten-year tops 525

Key arguments

• Rising US Treasury yields across the curve are the main weight on gold, with the 10-year real yield at an 18-year high near 2.9%.
• Trump's rejection of Iran's Strait of Hormuz proposal sustains oil supply-disruption fears, though Saudi pipeline resumption may ease physical tightness.
• Equities sold off broadly; Nvidia's record USD 150bn buyback was the exception while Meta, Tesla and AMD led declines.
• ECB and UK officials flag energy-driven inflation, with Lagarde noting 2027-2028 forecasts rose and markets pricing roughly 100bp of ECB tightening by end-2027.

Corresponding source evidence

1. UK shop price inflation slowed to 1.4% year on year in September from 1.5%, with food inflation at 2.5% on meat and dairy promotions, though the British Retail Consortium warned retailers cannot keep absorbing rising costs; UK CPI was 3.1% in August and is expected to exceed 4% in early 2027 as the conflict lifts energy prices. · 2027
2. • ECB President Lagarde said 2027 and 2028 inflation forecasts have risen on higher energy prices, with no sign yet of energy costs feeding wages, and called for a measured policy response. · 2027
3. After the close Jefferies beat with Q3 EPS of USD 1.08 against about USD 1.00 expected on revenue of USD 2.22bn, but asset management revenue more than halved and the shares slipped around 3%.