Daily Treasury OutlookHighlights
中文标题
每日国债展望 · 摘要
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
OCBC's 28 September 2026 outlook sees the RBA hiking 25bp to 4.60% on persistent core inflation and resilient demand. The Trump-Xi summit extended the US-China trade truce to 10 January 2027 with reciprocal tariff cuts on about USD30bn of goods, but rare earths and critical minerals issues remain unresolved. Focus shifts to US nonfarm payrolls (consensus ~100k, unemployment 4.2%), core PCE (0.3% MoM) and China PMIs. US 10-year yields hit 5.16%, Singapore August industrial production is seen up 19.2% YoY.
- Institution
- OCBC Research
- Published
- 09/28/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · Crude Oil (WTI)
- Time horizon
- 2056 · January 2027 · 2027 · 2026 · 2030
Key arguments
- RBA is widely expected to hike 25bp to 4.60% on persistent core inflation, resilient domestic demand and Governor Bullock's warning that energy-related inflation risks may be materialising.
- The Trump-Xi summit extended the trade truce by two months and created a Board of Trade plus an AI dialogue, but was high on symbolism and light on substantive breakthroughs, with rare earths unresolved.
- A data-heavy US week culminates in Friday's nonfarm payrolls; sticky inflation plus strong growth pushed 10-year and 30-year yields to their highest since 2007 and 2004.
- Thailand's August export growth accelerated to 24.3% YoY, keeping the Commerce Ministry's 5-11% forecast likely to be reassessed higher.
Key numbers
- RBA policy rate (expected)
- 4.60%, +25bp
- US nonfarm payrolls consensus
- ~100k; unemployment 4.2%
- US 10Y / 30Y Treasury yield
- 5.16% / 5.50%
- Singapore August industrial production (OCBC forecast)
- +19.2% YoY / +2.8% MoM
- Brent / WTI
- USD104.32 / USD92.41 per barrel
Main risks
- Long-end US yields at multi-decade highs could tighten financial conditions further if inflation stays sticky.
- Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia may lift oil and weigh on Asian risk sentiment.
- Malaysia's 2026 fiscal deficit may widen beyond the 3.6%-of-GDP forecast if Brent holds above USD100 per barrel.
Corresponding source evidence
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has warned that the fiscal deficit and publicly held debt could rise to 14% and 222% of GDP, respectively, by 2056.
· 2056The RBA meets tomorrow and is widely expected to raise rates by 25bp to 4.60%, given persistent core inflation, resilient domestic demand, and Governor Bullock's warning that energy-related inflation risks may be materialising.
Investors will be monitoring a series of key US releases, including JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, personal income and spending, and core PCE inflation (consensus: 0.3% MoM), culminating in Friday's nonfarm payrolls report (consensus: around 100k) and unemployment rate (consensus: 4.2%).
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by OCBC Research on 09/28/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction