Asian banks’ loans to the GCC: from fast lane to hard stop

中文标题

亚洲银行对海湾合作委员会的贷款：从快车道到急刹车

Natixis09/29/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Based on BIS locational banking data, Asia's claims on the GCC grew faster than the rest of the world, with Hong Kong's claims rising $72bn from 2019 to Q1 2026 and the GCC's share up to 4.4% from 2.0%; Korea's share fell to 4.8% from 6.6%. Bloomberg syndicated loan data show Asian lending slowed sharply in 2026, reaching only 26% of the 2025 total as of September, with 78% signed January-April. Funding costs have not surged yet: Saudi USD CD coupons rose only to about 4.3% from 4.0%.

Institution: Natixis
Published: 09/29/2026
Research topic: Crude Oil (WTI) · US Dollar (DXY)
Time horizon: this year

Crude Oil (WTI) · WTI US Dollar (DXY) · DXY

Key arguments

Asia's claims on the GCC have grown faster than those of the rest of the world, led by Hong Kong, while Korea and Japan have been more conservative.
Asian syndicated lending to the Middle East has slowed sharply in 2026, reaching only 26% of the 2025 total as of September.
Hong Kong lenders have been the most resilient, reaching almost half their 2025 total, versus about a fifth for Mainland China and Japan.
No surge in funding costs yet: softer loan demand from scaled-back Saudi infrastructure projects and lower Gulf oil production has kept Saudi USD CD coupons only slightly higher.

Key numbers

Hong Kong claims on GCC increase, 2019 to Q1 2026: $72bn
GCC share of Hong Kong cross-border claims: 4.4%, up from 2.0%
GCC share of Korean cross-border claims: 4.8%, down from 6.6%
Asian syndicated lending as share of 2025 total, as of September 2026: 26%
Saudi USD certificate of deposit weighted average coupon: about 4.0% in January to 4.3% in September

Main risks

A continued and widening war could make Asia's financing slowdown a larger problem for the Gulf.
Dollar liquidity could become scarcer with a much more hawkish Fed, compounding the slowdown.
BIS data stop at Q1 2026 and exclude a country breakdown for China, limiting the completeness of the lending picture.

Corresponding source evidence

This trend looks even more abrupt in the monthly data, with 78% of this year’s loans signed between January and April, many of them agreed before the war or while it was still expected to be short-lived. · this year
Lower Gulf oil production and exports have also dampened demand for trade finance.
All in all, as the war continues unabated and even extends further, the slowdown of financing from Asia might become a larger problem for the Gulf as dollar liquidity scarcer with a much more hawkish Fed.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

Verify at the original source ↗