OCBC Daily Credit Snapshot 28 September 2026

Key arguments

• Trade truce extension to 10 January and reciprocal tariff cuts on ~USD30bn of non-sensitive goods; China committed to importing at least 10mn tonnes of US coal annually in 2027 and 2028.
• US Treasury yields at multi-decade highs on 'strong economy, sticky inflation'; August core capital goods orders +1.6% m/m, UMich 1-year inflation expectations up to 4.6%.
• RBA expected to hike 25bp to 4.60% on persistent core inflation, resilient demand and Bullock's energy-inflation warning.
• Credit spreads widened: US IG +3bp to 80bp, US HY +12bp to 294bp, Asia USD HY +15bp to 331bp.

Corresponding source evidence

1. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has warned that the fiscal deficit and publicly held debt could rise to 14% and 222% of GDP, respectively, by 2056. · 2056
2. The RBA meets tomorrow and is widely expected to raise rates by 25bp to 4.60%, given persistent core inflation, resilient domestic demand, and Governor Bullock's warning that energy-related inflation risks may be materialising.
3. Investors will be monitoring a series of key US releases, including JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, personal income and spending, and core PCE inflation (consensus: 0.3% m/m), culminating in Friday's nonfarm payrolls report (consensus: around 100k) and unemployment rate (consensus: 4.2%).