Views

• Higher oil prices, AI investment and stronger domestic inflation added to concerns.

1 Asia FX Weekly BSP, BI and BOK policy decisions amidst tech-led risk-off The focus in Asia will be on central bank policy decisions by Indonesia, Philippines and South Korea, China’s macro data, coupled with whether the tech and semiconductor-led risk-off sentiment continues into next week.

• TSMC reports before the US open, the first large semiconductor result since the selloff began, with Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers and Prologis alongside it.

• Single-name flow did not lean one way: upside was paid for in semiconductors and crypto-related names while financials, metals and biotech were net sellers of premium.

8 A4: Under a set of simplifying assumptions, we estimate the direct effect of higher semiconductor prices on core CPI inflation at around +0.1ppt in CY2026.

• Correlation read: three-month implied correlation at 11.75 remains very low and dispersion at 36.00 was unchanged, which is what let a two percent fall in semiconductors coexist with a flat index.

• Metals: Managed money reduced exposure across all metals, led by gold, as dollar strength and elevated US real yields continued to weigh on sentiment ahead of Wednesday's inflation print.

• Precious metals find support: A sharp reversal lower in Treasury yields and the dollar helps gold challenge its downtrend, while silver's recovery from its weekly lows suggests renewed investor interest.

• Gold finds support despite macro headwinds: Falling real yields and resilient investment demand help gold recover from its post-CPI sell-off, but the technical outlook remains fragile.

• Silver continues to underperform: Weakness across industrial metals and a breakout in the gold-silver ratio above 72.60 raise the risk of further underperformance against gold.

• Metals: Gold trades steady near USD 4,160 after Tuesday’s decline, driven by renewed energy price strength and rising bond yields, was halted following comments from Fed official Williams suggesting that one further rate hike this year may be sufficient, with no additional tightening needed in 2027.