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1345 evidence-backed views published in the latest 7 days, newest first with same-topic and same-event views grouped together.

Each line is one claim extracted from one report: what the publisher expects, in which direction, on which asset, over what horizon. How views are extracted · By asset · By topic

#10514d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

While we are not looking for the central bank to deliver on all three hikes priced in over the next 12 months, we doubt that the current hawkish Fed pricing will leave the market until next spring.

12Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 50

#10524d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

At that point, base effects look likely to bring inflation much closer to the Fed's 2% target.

2%Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 50

#10535d

MUFGbullishunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDthis month

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The release yesterday of the stronger US CPI report for September will keep pressure of the Fed to keep hiking rates and has raised the probability of a back-to-back hike later this month.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 50

#10545d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDthis month

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We are still assuming that the Fed will leave rates on hold this month after comments from Fed officials indicating that they are not in a rush to hike again as soon as this month.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 50

#10555d

MUFGbullishunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Fed Cahir Kevin Warsh’s comments at the Annual IMF meetings in Thailand on Friday will be scrutinized even more closely now after the stronger US CPI report.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 50

#10565d

NatixisneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We had said that anything near consensus would not likely shift the narrative for the Fed for October, but this isfar enough from consensus toatleast make itadebate.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 47

#10575d

NatixisneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has said that he welcomes “live” meetings and it looks like that iswhat he will get in October.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 47

#10585d

NatixisneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Ultimately, we think the Fed will pause when itmeets inafew weeks, but today’s data atleast gives the hawks more ammo and ifmarkets continue toprice inahike, the FOMC may be loathe tosurprise with ahold.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 47

#10596d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

In particular, the consensus expects US headline CPI inflation to rise to 3.6%yoy in September from 3.4%yoy, and this will be the key test of whether the recent repricing towards a Fed hold in October can be sustained.

3.6%Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10606d

MUFGbullishunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

An in-line print would likely leave the Fed in wait-and-see mode and is also consistent with recent commentary from Fed speakers around skipping the October meeting in raising rates.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10616d

OCBC ResearchneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FED2027

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Separately, New York Fed President John Williams reiterated that one additional rate hike may be necessary this year to contain inflation, although he sees no need for further tightening in 2027.

2027Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10626d

OCBC ResearchneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDnext year

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Williams remains confident that underlying disinflationary forces will help bring inflation towards the Fed's 2% target, with energy prices unlikely to add further inflationary pressure next year.

2%Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10636d

OCBC ResearchneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDmedium-term

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Taken together, the comments suggest that while the Fed may not be done tightening, policymakers remain relatively confident in the medium-term disinflation outlook.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10646d

OCBC ResearchneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Market Watch: Looking ahead, today's focus will be on US and China CPI, China's September trade data and the Fed's Beige Book.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10656d

OCBC ResearchneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

A busy lineup of Fed and ECB speakers at the meetings in Bangkok will also provide further insights into the global monetary policy outlook.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10666d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Still, we remain sceptical that inflation pressures will continue to build and while we expect the Fed to hike again in December, we do not expect the Fed to deliver the two further rate hikes currently priced by the markets.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10676d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDJuly 2024

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Taking the PCE measure of inflation, the annualised 3mth change fell in August to the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target for the first time since July 2024.

3Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10686d

MUFGconditionalunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDnext year

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

If we project forward current market pricing for the Fed’s policy rate by the middle of next year and use the consensus inflation forecast, the implied real fed funds rate reaches 2.60%, not far from the peak restrictiveness seen following the global inflation shock.

2.60%Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10696d

MUFGbullishunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We don’t believe the Fed will need to raise rates to that leve l.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10706d

Saxo BankconditionalunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Meanwhile, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said it is "very possible" the Fed could hold if inflation keeps slowing.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 67Fresh 43

#10715d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDQ1 2027

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

FOMC: We’re forecasting two more rate hikes to a fed funds target rate of 4.5% including one more increase likely in December followed by one more hike in 2027Q1 and then flat at the terminal rate over the rest of 2027.

4.5%Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10725d

Scotiabank EconomicsbullishunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Call it reinsurance on the Fed’s insurance hikes because raising the policy rate by just 25-50bps would accomplish very little in terms of the lagging effects on growth and inflation.

25Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10735d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We forecast the BoC’s current -175bps policy rate spread to narrow to about 100bps below the Fed.

175bpFed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10745d

State StreetneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Inflation has continued to moderate, but we expect progress toward the Federal Reserve's target to remain gradual and uneven.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10755d

State StreetneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Although moderating wage pressures and productivity gains could help contain inflation, we believe structural and supply-side factors will keep inflation above the Federal Reserve's target for some time, resulting in a longer and less predictable path back to price stability.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10765d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

That said, Federal Reserve rate hikes will have limited impact on these two price drivers.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10775d

ING THINKbearishunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Right now our forecast is for a December Federal Reserve rate hike before a long pause, but the risks to that view are skewed towards the Fed moving rates even higher before rate cuts come through.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10785d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

I wouldn’t rule out another hike on October 28th despite some guidance from FOMC officials.

28Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10796d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FED2027

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

New York Fed president John Williams said he expected one additional hike to rates this year but that the Fed wouldn’t need to do more in 2027.

2027Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#10807d

OCBC ResearchneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivered a hawkish speech yesterday, arguing that the Federal Reserve should move relatively quickly towards a restrictive monetary policy stance, with smaller and earlier adjustments being preferable to waiting and potentially requiring larger hikes later.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#10817d

OCBC ResearchneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Both are expected to play an important role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy decisions.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#10827d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

His remarks will attract particular attention as they come just before the blackout period ahead of the FOMC meeting at the end of the month.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#10837d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Chair Warsh's speech will attract considerable attention in this regard, although his reluctance to pre -empt policy decisions means he may offer few clues ahead of the FOMC meeting around two weeks later.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#10847d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Together with firm activity, this should require further tightening from both the Fed and the BoC.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#10857d

Scotiabank EconomicsbullishunclassifiedFed Policy · FED2027

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Persistent inflation and resilient activity should lead the Fed to raise rates twice more, taking the federal funds rate to 4.5% in early 2027, before reversing those hikes in 2028 as the economy slows.

4.5%Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#10867d

CitibearishunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Rates first — the Fed has actually gone back to hiking, and it's a global story, with more central banks hiking than cutting for the first time in years.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 100Fresh 37

#10876d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

International experts familiar with debates in places like Australia and now the US given Warsh’s task forces may also be pulled in.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#10886d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

A review should not be conducted by the BoC given Ottawa’s tight connections, although going the route of one of the Fed’s five taskforces that looks at data quality and is being led by external experts could be one such model.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#10896d

State StreetconditionalunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

That said, we expect any pullback to be shallow and short-lived unless there is a material negative shift in US growth, inflation, energy prices, and/or the Fed's tightening outlook.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#10907d

MUFGbullishunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

MUFG notes that a core reading of 0.3% would keep rates under pressure and push hiking expectations for the October FOMC meeting towards 30%, representing an upside risk.

0.3%Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

English source evidence

▪ Upside risk: A core reading of 0.3% would keep rates under pressure and push hiking expectations for the Oct FOMC meeting towards 30%.

#10917d

MUFGbearishunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

For Fed policy, the downside risk of a 0.1% MoM core CPI reading would quell expectations of a Fed hike in October and prompt a bull steepening move.

0.1%Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

English source evidence

▪ Downside risk: A 0.1% MoM core reading would quell expectations of a Fed hike in Oct, prompting a bull steepening move.

#109214h 37m

HSBCneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

With 78% of corporate treasurers actively reviewing their banking account structures to simplify bank connectivity, reduce the number of bank accounts, and improve transparency across the group1, it is critical to understand that each centralisation structure has consequences beyond treasury.

78%US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 100Fresh 88

#109314h 37m

HSBCneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Corporate treasurers therefore value coordinated support from experienced partners - banks and advisers - who can provide holistic and practical guidance on treasury transformation.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 100Fresh 88

#109414h 37m

HSBCneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The adviser sets the target operating model, tests it against tax, transfer pricing, accounting and local regulation in every market in scope, and sequences the implementation so that legal, treasury and technology workstreams land together.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 100Fresh 88

#109514h 37m

HSBCbullishunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Beginning with a comprehensive treasury assessment, our analysis revealed opportunities for ERM Group to streamline and concentrate external liquidity and improve access and control through enhanced liquidity automation and reporting.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 100Fresh 88

#109614h 37m

HSBCbullishunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Together, the treasury team and HSBC distilled this information into a solution which realised material benefits for the corporate including fewer accounts, more efficient intercompany payments and improved cash visibility.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 100Fresh 88

#109714h 37m

HSBCneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The greater complexity sits upstream: deciding what the treasury function should look like, proving that the design survives contact with local rules, and coordinating tax, legal, treasury and technology teams.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 100Fresh 88

#109810h 26m

BNP ParibasneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Accordingly, they signaled that additional rate action was likely but not imminent, acknowledging that the rise in bond yields was doing part of the job, and that there were no signs yet of second round effects.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 100Fresh 88

#10997h

State StreetneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Although the recent jump in G7 bond yields was not war-related, higher yields could make market conditions increasingly sensitive to disruption (Figure 3).

7US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#11007h

State StreetconditionalunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

U.S. Treasury Bills maintain a stable value if held to maturity, but returns are generally only slightly above the inflation rate.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

Central banks and public institutions

These links group reports by the institution discussed in the content, not by who published the report.

Federal Reserve European Central Bank Bank of England Bank of Japan People's Bank of China Bank Indonesia Reserve Bank of Australia Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bank of Canada Swiss National Bank Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau of Economic Analysis United States Department of the Treasury Eurostat Office for National Statistics U.S. Energy Information Administration

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Central banks and public institutions