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渣打银行 · Oli Fernandes · 2026/09/03

驾驭中国的K型转型

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驾驭中国的K型转型

在整体宏观趋势喜忧参半的背景下,中国正经历一场K型转型,但精准的投资策略仍能在股票和固定收益领域发现机遇。

雷蒙德·郑 北亚区首席投资官

中国的金融市场正处于关键的十字路口。进入2026,年的最后阶段,在岸股市逆转走势,抹去了年初以来的涨幅。近期的经济数据也意外下行,加剧了全球投资者的疑虑。然而,这种表面上的疲弱之下,隐藏着结构性的K型转型——先进科技和新经济行业蓬勃发展的同时,传统行业却在艰难挣扎。

在指数层面,股市表现反映了更广泛的区域动态。从表面上看,在岸股市近期几乎乏善可陈。沪深300指数回调,抹平了上半年10%的涨幅。重要的是,在7月席卷全球AI、动量股和高贝塔(波动性更高)股票的剧烈回调中,中国并非孤例。在沪深300挣扎的同时,MSCI台湾指数跌幅相近,MSCI韩国指数下挫超过30%。与此相反,恒生指数当月上涨超过13%,东南亚市场上涨8%。

近期上海之行中的观察远非指向更大范围的崩溃,反而增强了我在我们偏好的亚洲(除日本)区域内对中国市场的信心。尽管中国短期宏观前景好坏参半,但通过实地调研、精准捕捉的视角,可以发现这一市场存在跨资产类别的投资机会。

多元化的力量

亚洲(除日本)各市场之间的表现分化,证明了地域和行业多元化的力量。我们对该区域股票的“超配”建议已在此轮波动中得到验证。我们对中国离岸股票的积极立场,有效抵消了该地区其他市场科技股的回调。进入8月,亚洲(除日本)市场反弹,单月回报超过3%,巩固了其与美股并肩的全球两大跑赢市场之一的地位。

鉴于7月宏观数据(从零售销售到工业生产)普遍疲软,我们经常被问及对中国股票的配置问题。确实,中国正在经历一场K型经济转型。AI和高档工业品蓬勃发展,而传统行业则面临产能过剩和内需不振。

尽管市场普遍担忧因就业不稳定和收入不确定性导致的消费疲软,但我们的实地观察却呈现了不同的景象。暑期电影票房创历史新高,内地年轻人为现场演唱会门票在黑市支付的惊人溢价,均表明中国消费者并未缺席。他们只是更具选择性,从奢侈品牌和大额升级消费转向体验式和情感式消费。

K型转型的投资影响

中国消费者中表现出的选择性行为为我们的投资策略提供了参考。在中国股票指数中,上市的人工智能股票仍然代表性不足,这些指数仍以传统周期性行业为主导。在没有广泛经济复苏的情况下,很难预见中国大盘指数会出现显著上涨。自7月以来,中国在岸和离岸市场的科技股均明显回调,而美国同行则凭借强劲的盈利恢复了失地。

我们认为此次回调是一个独特的入场点。我们建议关注中国的人工智能生态系统,以及电力和电气化这两个获得增量政策支持的主题。在7月政治局会议之后,国家发展和改革委员会(NDRC)宣布了一项规模达4万亿元人民币的五年期国家算力网络投资计划。这不仅仅反映了中国的自力更生倡议;这是对需求激增的回应,日均人工智能代币调用量的上升证明了这一点。国家发改委正在努力整合人工智能计算基础设施,以减少瓶颈,确保全国范围内的算力供应无缝衔接。

此外,资金正在到位。除了增加政府债券发行外,两家备受关注的中国企业——一家标志性的机器人制造商和全球第四大DRAM芯片制造商——今年夏天获得了A股首次公开募股的批准。自上市以来,这两家公司的股价均大幅上涨数倍,表明中国资本市场正在支持新经济。

超越股票

中国的投资机会不仅限于股票市场。中国国债(CGBs)是有效的投资组合多元化工具,其回报与受通胀压力和收益率上升困扰的发达市场不相关。我们认为中国国债收益率曲线长端有下行空间,预期美元走弱可能带来额外的价格回报潜力。

构建多元化的中国跨资产敞口

鉴于中国经济增长前景仍受到行业分化的挑战,我们建议对成长型股票采取选择性策略,重点关注人工智能、高端工业和电气化,并与优质股息股票以及中国国债保持平衡。在复杂多变的全球格局中,通过多元化敞口、顺应政策支持并注重质量特征来驾驭中国市场至关重要。

完整英文原文

China is undergoing a K-shaped transition amid mixed macro trends, but a discerning investment approach reveals opportunities across equities and fixed income.

Raymond Cheng Chief Investment Officer, North Asia

China’s financial markets stand at a pivotal crossroads. As we enter the final stretch of 2026, onshore equities have reversed course, erasing gains from the start of the year. Recent economic prints have also surprised to the downside, fuelling scepticism among global investors. This headline weakness, however, hides a structural K-shaped transition beneath the surface, where the advanced technology and new-economy sectors thrive while traditional industries struggle.

At the index level, stock market performance reflects broader regional dynamics. On the surface, onshore equities have had little to cheer about of late. The CSI 300 Index has pulled back, giving up the 10% rally seen in the first half of the year. Importantly, China was not alone in the sharp correction that swept through global AI, momentum, and higher-beta (more volatile) stocks in July. As the CSI 300 struggled, the MSCI Taiwan Index dipped by a similar margin, and the MSCI Korea Index tumbled over 30%. Conversely, the Hang Seng Index rallied over 13%, and Southeast Asian markets rose 8% in the month.

Far from pointing to a broader collapse, observations from a recent trip to Shanghai have in fact strengthened my conviction in China within our preferred Asia ex-Japan (AxJ) region. While China’s near-term macro outlook is mixed, a discerning, on-the-ground approach reveals a market with investment opportunities across asset classes.

The power of diversification

The performance divergence across AxJ markets is a testament to the power of geographic and sectoral diversification. Our Overweight recommendation on AxJ equities has been vindicated by this volatility. Our positive stance on China offshore equities has effectively offset the pullback in tech stocks elsewhere in the region. As we moved into August, AxJ bounced back to return over 3% in one month, cementing its status as one of the two outperforming regions globally, alongside the US.

We often face questions about our equity allocation to China, given the broad-based weakness in July macro prints ranging from retail sales to industrial production. It is true that China is navigating a K-shaped economic transition. AI and high-end industrials are booming, while traditional industries face excess capacity and muted domestic demand.

Despite widespread concerns over weak consumption driven by job insecurity and income instability, our observations on the ground tell a different story. Record-high summer movie theatre admissions and the staggering markups young mainlanders are paying for live concert tickets on the black market suggest that the Chinese consumer is not absent. They are merely selective, pivoting away from luxury brands and big-ticket upgrades towards experiences and emotional spending.

Investment implications of the K-shaped transition

The selective behaviour seen among Chinese consumers informs our investment strategy. Listed AI equities remain underrepresented in China’s equity indices, which are still dominated by traditional, cyclical industries. Without a broad-based economic recovery, it is difficult to foresee a notable rally in the broad China indices. Since July, technology stocks in both onshore and offshore China markets have pulled back notably, while US peers have recovered lost ground on strong earnings.

We view this pullback as a unique entry point. We recommend exposure to China’s AI ecosystem, as well as power and electrification – two themes that enjoy incremental policy support. Following the July Politburo meeting, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a CNY 4 trillion five-year investment in the national computing network. This is not merely reflective of China’s self-sufficiency initiative; it is a response to soaring demand, evidenced by the rising average daily AI token call volume. The NDRC is working to pool AI computing infrastructure to reduce bottlenecks and ensure seamless nationwide computing power supply.

Furthermore, funding is materialising. Apart from increased government bond issuance, two high-profile Chinese corporates – an iconic robot maker and the world’s fourth-largest DRAM chipmaker – received the greenlight for A-share IPOs this summer. Both have seen their prices surge multiple fold since listing, signalling that China’s capital markets are supporting the new economy.

Beyond equities

Investment opportunities in China extend beyond the stock market. China Government Bonds (CGBs) are effective portfolio diversifiers, offering returns uncorrelated to the developed markets plagued by inflationary pressures and rising yields. We see room for a downtick along the longer end of the CGB yield curve, with additional price return potential coming from anticipated USD weakness.

Building diversified cross-asset China exposure

As China’s economic outlook remains challenged by sectoral divergence, we recommend a selective approach to growth equities, focusing on AI, high-end industrials and electrification, balanced with quality dividend equities as well as CGBs. In a complex, evolving global landscape, it is crucial to navigate China with diversified exposures aligned with policy support and quality attributes.

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Recipients in Vietnam should contact Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited for any queries regarding any content of this document. Zambia: This document is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, a company incorporated in Zambia and registered as a commercial bank and licensed by the Bank of Zambia under the Banking and Financial Services Act Chapter 387 of the Laws of Zambia.
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AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 中国经济正处于K型转型期,技术和新经济领域蓬勃发展,而传统行业面临产能过剩和需求疲软问题。
  • 沪深300指数已回吐上半年涨幅,但恒生指数和东南亚市场表现较好,凸显了地域多样化的好处。
  • 中国消费者具有选择性,将支出转向体验和情感消费,与广泛的需求疲软担忧相反。
  • 政府政策支持,包括对全国计算网络4万亿人民币的投资,突显了人工智能及相关基础设施的增长潜力。
  • 中国政府债券是有效的多样化工具,长期收益率有望下行,且可从美元走软中获取额外收益。
风险
  • 消费和收入增长持续疲软可能延迟经济复苏。
  • K型分化若导致政策支持错配,可能造成失误。
  • 全球AI股票波动可能持续,影响中国科技股。
  • 发达市场债券收益率上升可能降低中国国债的吸引力。