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Saxo's commodity weekly says the Bloomberg Commodity Index is set for a marginal 0.1% weekly decline, staying up about 35% year-to-date, with energy strength offsetting losses in metals and grains. Gold steadies as Treasury yields and the dollar reverse…
Fed Chair Warsh refused to prejudge upcoming meetings or offer forward guidance, while repeating upbeat US outlook views. BoC Governor Macklem said the Bank has not yet raised rates but is asking whether energy-driven inflation will force a hike. US Commerce…
Next week brings rate decisions in Hungary, Turkey and Kazakhstan plus Polish industrial output, labour market and retail sales data. ING expects the National Bank of Hungary to hold, a 100bp Turkish cut to 36%, and a 25bp cut to 16.00% in Kazakhstan on 23…
Czech industrial producer prices rose 3.7% YoY and 1.2% MoM in September, beating expectations, while agricultural prices fell 7.2% YoY but rose 3.2% MoM. ING expects industrial PPI growth to peak above 6% in January and agricultural PPI above 12% by…
Eurostat's final September estimate put euro area headline HICP at 3.8% y/y and 0.6% m/m, above Natixis' 3.5% call but matching the flash. Energy surged 18.9% y/y and 4.0% m/m, contributing 1.7pp and overtaking services as the largest driver. Core held at…
Schwab's On Investing podcast weighs a hotter-than-expected core CPI against the AI infrastructure boom. Higher Treasury yields pressure rate-sensitive firms, making quality a focal point into earnings. TCW's Bryan Whalen notes hyperscalers increasingly fund…
Ahead of SAP's 21 October 2026 Q3 report, after a ~57% rally to EUR 201.55, the article illustrates two income strategies: a cash-secured 186 put (about EUR 3.87) and a covered 220 call (about EUR 3.71), both expiring 20 November 2026. Option prices imply a…
The October CommBank FX Barometer surveyed 136 money managers and 867 corporates. Nine in ten managers plan higher hedge ratios, with none cutting; average foreign asset share is 33%. Importers' hedging rose to 87% and exporters' to 73%. Corporates expect…
ING expects UK Chancellor John Healey's first budget to be modestly contractionary, not stimulative. Debt interest costs are set to cut fiscal headroom to about £10bn; the Chancellor wants above £15bn. ING forecasts £5-6bn of tax hikes and a roughly…
FX markets are caught between hot inflation, which argues for tighter Fed policy, and an AI-related tech selloff that could force a softer stance. ING expects the dollar to consolidate near recent highs, sees DXY capped at 102.40/50, and flags defensive Swiss…
US September producer prices jumped 1.3% m/m, the largest since March 2022, with energy up 10.8% and core PPI up 0.7%; retail sales rose 0.8% but control-group sales gained only 0.1%. Equities rotated out of AI and chip names into healthcare, financials and…
Brent crude holds above USD 105/b even as prices drift about 0.6% lower to USD 105.33/b, with WTI down 0.7% at USD 97.30/b and on track for a near 6% weekly gain after Hurricane Isaias. EIA data show a 300k b/d US production drop, an 8.6m bbl fall in…
Rate decisions dominate Asia's week: BSP is expected to hike 25bp due to strong September inflation, while Bank Indonesia holds at 5.75% and Bank of Korea holds at 3.0%. China's Q3 GDP is seen at 4.4% YoY, with retail sales and industrial production…
US producer prices rose 1.3% MoM in September, the largest monthly gain since March 2022, with PPI at 6.3% YoY; retail sales beat at 0.8%. Despite hot inflation data, the 10-year Treasury yield fell roughly 15bps to around 5.04%, its largest single-day…
Fed Chair Warsh gave no policy guidance, which markets read as endorsing current pricing; the October hike probability dropped from 26% to 14% and the 2-year yield fell 3-4bps. The dollar was broadly unchanged. Warsh dwelt on AI, calling it a near-term…
MUFG expects the Philippine central bank to raise its policy rate 25bp to 5.25% on higher oil prices and Super El Niño risk, while the Bank of Korea is seen holding at 3.00% after back-to-back hikes. Bank Indonesia is widely expected to hold at 5.75%, though…
A technology-led equity selloff drove a haven bid into Treasuries, pushing the 2-year yield down to about 4.7% and reversing the post-CPI rise, while the 10-year fell to roughly 5.05%. Lower US yields broadly relieved Asian currencies, but record foreign…
MUFG reports the USD is on course to weaken this week, ending four straight weekly gains. After jumping to a fresh year-to-date high on stronger September US CPI, the dollar quickly gave back those gains. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates this month;…
Australia's September employment fell 39.3k, but a 0.2ppt participation drop kept unemployment at 4.7%, now above the RBA's 4.6% NAIRU. Westpac expects the jobless rate to peak near 4.8% by Q2 2027 and still forecasts a 25bp RBA hike in November, with…
Westpac argues that Australian firms bundling previously surcharged card-acceptance costs into sticker prices reveal a 'cost-plus' pricing mentality driven by non-labour cost escalation rather than wages, which base growth has kept moderate. The RBA is…