Latam Weekly: Chile GDP, Peru CPI, BanRep DecisionGLOBAL ECONOMICS
中文标题
拉美周报：智利GDP、秘鲁CPI、BanRep决议 · 全球经济
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Scotiabank's Latam Weekly previews Chile GDP, Peru CPI and Colombia's BanRep decision, plus Mexican trade and Brazilian industrial production, ahead of Friday's US nonfarm payrolls. BanRep is likely to hold at 12.00%. Despite weak Chilean activity, the BCCh's 4.5% policy rate may need a hawkish tilt, with a rate hike forecast potentially becoming the baseline; domestic demand above 4% in 2027 would allow higher rates. Peru's inflation projection was raised to 4.8% on oil and El Niño. Banxico is seen on hold at 6.50%.
- Institution
- Scotiabank Economics
- Published
- 09/25/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation
- Time horizon
- 2026 · next week · 2027 · September 2025
Key arguments
- Colombia's BanRep is expected to hold its overnight lending rate at 12.00% on September 30.
- Chile's BCCh stance may soon have to tilt hawkish despite weak activity; a rate hike forecast could become the baseline, and the earlier the adjustment, the smaller its 2027-2028 impact.
- Peru's BCRP inflation projection was raised to 4.8% by year-end on high international oil prices and an extraordinary-intensity El Niño from 4Q26.
- Banxico is expected to keep the policy rate at 6.50% with no changes through 2027 after ending its easing cycle.
Key numbers
- BanRep expected rate
- 12.00%
- Chile policy rate
- 4.5%
- Peru year-end inflation projection
- 4.8% (raised from 4.2%)
- Banxico policy rate
- 6.50%
- Chile domestic demand growth (2027 baseline)
- above 4%
Main risks
- Chile's rate hike forecast becoming baseline hinges on domestic demand above 4% in 2027 and latest external developments; a hike is not yet the adopted call.
- Peru's 4.8% inflation projection depends on oil prices and an El Niño of extraordinary intensity from 4Q26 that could temporarily affect food supply.
- Banxico's on-hold path assumes no changes over 2026-2027, leaving little room for easing surprises.
Corresponding source evidence
LATAM WEEKLY September 25, 2026 Global Economics 2 Chile GDP, Peru CPI, BanRep Decision Juan Manuel Herrera Director +52.55.2299.6675 (Mexico) juanmanuel.herrera@scotiabank.com • Chilean GDP, Peruvian CPI, and BanRep’s likely rate hold are the highlights in next week’s Latam calendar, joined by Mexican international trade data and Brazilian industrial production , with global markets anxiously awaiting Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.
· 2026Chilean GDP and Peruvian CPI on Thursday, and BanRep’s likely rate hold on Wednesday are the highlights in next week’s Latam calendar, joined by Mexican international trade data and Brazilian industrial production.
· next weekEconomic growth in Chi le has clearly been disappointing in 2026, with mining weakness and the impact of adverse weather partly to blame but also reflecting more sluggish underlying demand trends than expected.
· 2026
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Scotiabank Economics on 09/25/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction