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New Zealand's recovery is uneven but resilient, with filled jobs up 0.9% in the year to August and agriculture driving regional growth. Inflation pressures persist in rate-insensitive sectors; annual CPI hit 4.1% in June and fuel costs are rising again.…
Annual revisions raised U.S. GDP growth and lowered past inflation, with real final sales to private domestic purchasers up 4.6% in Q2. September payrolls rose only 29k, prior months were revised lower, unemployment edged up to 4.2% on higher participation,…
US Treasuries fell for a seventh straight session, with the 10-year yield hitting 5.3% and the 30-year at a 24-year high, driven by Middle East conflict, robust US activity, AI-driven debt issuance and fiscal deficits. UBS CIO deems market pricing of nearly…
SMBC's Joseph Lavorgna projects real GDP growth easing from 2.3% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027, with a sharp Q4 2026 slowdown to 0.7% after 5.1% in Q3. Core PCE is forecast to fall from 3.1% to 2.3% by Q4 2027, allowing the Fed funds upper bound to be cut to…
EURUSD hit new one-year lows, driven mainly by broad USD strength, while the euro has only begun to reflect Eurozone sovereign stress. The France-Germany 10-year yield spread widened above 130bp from roughly 85bp in early September. French 10-year yields…
The US dollar extended its rally, pushing the dollar index toward June's year-to-date high of 101.80, even after August core PCE inflation slowed to 3.0% year-on-year versus 3.3% expected, with downward revisions trimming 36bps. The three-month annualized…
August real personal consumption rose a robust 0.9% m/m, leaving spending 0.8% above its pre-Covid trend, and Q3 PCE is tracking 3.7% QoQ annualized. Yet real disposable personal income is growing only 1.3% y/y amid elevated inflation, implying households are…
SMBC argues the recent rate selloff reflects a repricing of the policy path rather than market stress, as futures basis and on-the-run/off-the-run spreads stayed orderly. With roughly 95bp of additional tightening priced over 12 months, SMBC believes the…
Energy-market rebalancing is slipping further away. The partial Hormuz blockade, Red Sea disruption and attacks on Saudi infrastructure keep oil and gas prices elevated, lifting inflation and delaying rate cuts. Under the baseline, assuming oil below $80 from…
Scotiabank's week-ahead preview sees September US nonfarm payrolls at 75k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, fading August's 162k as weather, local-government education and leisure hiring reverse. Canada's July GDP is tracked near +0.1% m/m with Q3 around 2%…
UBS CIO argues the recent Treasury selloff, which pushed the 10-year yield above 5.1% for the first time since 2007, need not derail markets. The firm expects the Fed to hike once more in December and then hold, with disinflation and favorable base effects…
Invesco argues that alarming headlines over AI bubbles, 5% Treasury yields, debt and oil are mostly attention-seeking rather than informative. Hyperscaler capex remains funded by strong operating cash flows, keeping capex-to-cash ratios below 1.0. AI…
Commodity markets remain distorted by persistent conflicts, but fundamentals are gaining weight. Physical crude rebalancing is capping rallies, while non-OPEC supply growth and weak demand could build a surplus and pull prices lower. Europe's gas and power…
SMBC's US economist forecasts a sharp Q3 2026 growth spike to 5.0% annualized, followed by a Q4 slowdown to 0.7%, with core PCE at 3.1% year over year through 2026. Unemployment drifts to 4.0% by 2027. The rates strategy team expects one more 25bp hike in…
TD Economics expects US growth slightly above trend in 2026/27 on expansionary fiscal policy, loose financial conditions, AI investment and a resilient consumer, with unemployment drifting to 4% by Q1-2027. Core PCE is not seen reaching 2% until Q4-2027, so…
Despite a $20+ oil surge, a 60bp rise in 2-year Treasury yields, Fed tightening, and the bombing of the Saudi East-West Pipeline, the S&P 500 sits only 2.07% below its August 13 record. Invesco argues bullish fundamentals—strong nominal growth, outsized…
The Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members preferring a hike. The statement flagged upside inflation risks greater than in July while noting little evidence so far of material second-round effects; November pricing slipped…
BNP Paribas expects the FOMC on September 15-16 to deliver the first Fed rate hike since May 2023, joining the ECB and BoJ in tightening. US growth runs near 2.2% y/y, unemployment is falling, core CPI at 0.29% m/m exceeds the bank's 0.2% trigger, and energy…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707…
The ECB delivered a second 25bp rate hike and Intesa Sanpaolo expects a pause until at least December, given its below-ECB inflation projections and limited second-round effects, though risks are one-sided to the upside. Attention now shifts to next week's…