Longterm September2026
中文标题
长期预测 9月2026
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
TD Economics expects US growth slightly above trend in 2026/27 on expansionary fiscal policy, loose financial conditions, AI investment and a resilient consumer, with unemployment drifting to 4% by Q1-2027. Core PCE is not seen reaching 2% until Q4-2027, so TD expects one more quarter-point Fed hike by end-2026 to 4.00-4.25%, then a reversal in H2-2027 to 3.50-3.75% and a gradual return to 3.00-3.25%. Canada grows below trend in 2027 with inflation above 3% into 2027; the Bank of Canada is expected to stay on hold, and wider rate spreads limit loonie upside until mid-2027.
- Institution
- TD Economics / TD Securities
- Published
- 09/22/2026
- Research topic
- Fed Policy · Inflation
- Time horizon
- 2026 · 2027 · this year
Key arguments
- US growth runs slightly above long-run trend in 2026/27, with unemployment reaching its 4% long-run average by Q1-2027.
- Core PCE does not return to the 2% target until Q4-2027, keeping inflation pressures elevated.
- TD expects one more quarter-point Fed hike by end-2026 to 4.00-4.25%, then H2-2027 easing to 3.50-3.75%.
- Canada grows below trend in 2027, inflation averages above 3%, and the Bank of Canada stays on hold.
Key numbers
- Fed funds target range after 2026 hike
- 4.00-4.25%
- Fed funds target range after H2-2027 reversal
- 3.50-3.75%
- US core PCE reaching 2% target
- Q4-2027
- US unemployment rate by Q1-2027
- 4.0%
- Canada inflation average into 2027
- over 3%
Main risks
- Uncertainty about the neutral rate could make the return to the 3.00-3.25% steady state more gradual than expected.
- Tariffs and higher AI-related software prices keep goods prices elevated, prolonging above-target inflation.
- In Canada, trade uncertainty and higher long-term yields drag growth while energy-driven inflation persists.
Corresponding source evidence
http://economics.td.com TD Economics • The U.S. economy is forecast to run slightly above its long-run trend rate of growth in 2026/27, aided by expansion - ary fiscal policy, loose financial conditions, further investments in AI and a resilient consumer.
· 2026The unemployment rate is expected to drift a bit lower, reaching its long-run average of 4% by Q1-2027.
· 2027The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation (core PCE) is not expected to reach the FOMC’s 2% inflation target until Q4-2027.
· 2027
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · FED
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD Economics / TD SecuritiesLongterm September2026 | 09/22/2026 | Neutral | — | 2026-2027 |
| Westpac / Westpac IQ'Australia and NZ Weekly' | 10/18/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| NatixisInflation Rises, Rates Ease | 10/16/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| SMBCUS Macroeconomics · Joseph Lavorgna 2026 2027 2026 2027 | 10/16/2026 | Bullish | — | 2027 Q2 |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by TD Economics / TD Securities on 09/22/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction