Fed Expected to Hike Rates on September 16, First Since 2023

中文标题

预计美联储将于9月16日加息，为2023年以来首次

BNP Paribas09/13/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

BNP Paribas expects the FOMC on September 15-16 to deliver the first Fed rate hike since May 2023, joining the ECB and BoJ in tightening. US growth runs near 2.2% y/y, unemployment is falling, core CPI at 0.29% m/m exceeds the bank's 0.2% trigger, and energy prices spike on Iran-linked disruptions. The bank sees a short three-hike cycle of 25bp each; the decision remains conditional on the Fed's read of the data.

Institution: BNP Paribas
Published: 09/13/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

Current conditions are far more favorable than during the three preventive cuts of late 2025, so unwinding that easing is justified.
Growth exceeds potential, unemployment is trending down, and core PCE has overshot the 2% target for 65 months.
The risk balance has shifted: fading employment concerns put upside inflation risks back at the center.
Kevin Warsh must match words with action to protect credibility after Jackson Hole and avoid adding stress to bond markets.

Key numbers

Fed funds target range: 3.50-3.75%
BNP estimate of neutral rate: 3.25-4.25% nominal
August core CPI m/m: +0.29% (BNP trigger: ">0.2%")
August headline CPI y/y: 3.4%
US GDP growth y/y since Q1 2025: 2.2% average

Main risks

The FOMC outcome remains relatively uncertain: the Fed may not judge conditions ripe for recalibration.
Energy-driven inflation must stay transitory; persistent tensions plus resilient growth could produce second-round effects.
Anchored inflation expectations are a prerequisite for looking through the energy shock and cannot be taken for granted.

Corresponding source evidence

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