Commodity · Focus Commodities: between geopolitics and climate Crude oil: tell me when
中文标题
大宗商品 · 聚焦大宗商品：地缘政治与气候之间 原油：告诉我何时
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Commodity markets remain distorted by persistent conflicts, but fundamentals are gaining weight. Physical crude rebalancing is capping rallies, while non-OPEC supply growth and weak demand could build a surplus and pull prices lower. Europe's gas and power prices are driven higher by structural issues, supply disruption and seasonality. Precious metals lack direction; gold may average near USD 4,200 for a couple of quarters amid a sharp contraction in jewellery demand. Industrial metals and agriculturals face upside risks.
- Institution
- Intesa Sanpaolo
- Published
- 09/23/2026
- Research topic
- Crude Oil (WTI) · Gold
- Time horizon
- 2027 · 2025 · May 2026
Key arguments
- Rebalancing of the physical crude market is well underway and is containing price rises; non-OPEC supply growth and weak demand could build a surplus and favour a partial price decline.
- European gas and electricity prices are rising on structural issues, exacerbated by supply disruption and seasonality; pre-2020 price levels will not return due to costly LNG dependence.
- Geopolitical tensions remain significant: energy infrastructure is again treated as a legitimate military target and Iran is using external militias, making attacks harder to predict and raising price-spike risk.
- Industrial metals and agricultural commodities retain upside risks from production costs, global demand growth, logistical risks and El Nino-related weather anomalies, though some agricultural concerns may ease in early 2027.
Key numbers
- Gold expected average price
- USD 4,200/oz
- Persian Gulf share of global oil consumption a year ago
- 14%
- Persian Gulf share of global gas consumption a year ago
- 5%
- Europe's LNG import share of needs since 2022
- 40%
- European power price forecast
- EUR 70/MWh in 4Q26; EUR 63 in 1Q27; EUR 55 in 2026; EUR 47 in 2027
Main risks
- Hedged gold price view: inflation fears and tighter monetary policy could delay any gold recovery, and the base case sees precious metals lacking clear direction.
- Geopolitical escalation risk: attacks on energy infrastructure and militia activity are hard to predict, threatening further energy price and inflation spikes.
- Europe gas supply risk: from January 2027 the Russian gas purchase ban extends to long-term contracts, reducing import flexibility during the seasonal demand peak.
Corresponding source evidence
Crude oil: tell me when The key question remains: when will exports from the Middle East return to pre -conflict levels on a sustained basis?
This could happen as early as the beginning of 2027, due to the efforts of the US Navy and the increased use of regional oil pipelines.
· 2027At the same time, growth in non -OPEC supply and weak global demand could also contribute to build a market surplus and favour a partial decline in prices .
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
Verify at the original source ↗Loading the document…
AI analysis
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Intesa Sanpaolo on 09/23/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction