US MacroeconomicsJoseph Lavorgna 2026 2027 2026 2027

中文标题

美国宏观经济 · Joseph Lavorgna 2026 2027 2026 2027

SMBC09/22/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

SMBC's US economist forecasts a sharp Q3 2026 growth spike to 5.0% annualized, followed by a Q4 slowdown to 0.7%, with core PCE at 3.1% year over year through 2026. Unemployment drifts to 4.0% by 2027. The rates strategy team expects one more 25bp hike in 2026 to a 4.50%-4.75% funds target, no hikes in 2027, and the 10-year yield peaking near 4.80% in Q3 2026 before easing to 4.50%.

Institution: SMBC
Published: 09/22/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

Real GDP growth is forecast to spike to 5.0% annualized in Q3 2026 before decelerating to 0.7% in Q4, implying volatile quarterly momentum.
Core PCE inflation stays at or above 3.1% year over year through 2026, only easing to 2.2% by Q4 2027.
The rates strategy team looks for one additional 25bp hike in 2026 to a 4.50%-4.75% target range, then no hikes in 2027.
The 10-year Treasury yield is projected to peak at 4.80% in Q3 2026 and settle at 4.50% through 2027.

Key numbers

Q3 2026 real GDP (q/q, ar): 5.0%
Q4 2026 real GDP (q/q, ar): 0.7%
Core PCE 2026 Q4/Q4: 3.1%
Fed funds upper bound end-2026: 4.75%
10-year Treasury Q3 2026: 4.80%

Main risks

Forecast is based on assumptions and parameters that are not the only ones that could be selected; no guarantee of accuracy, completeness or reasonableness.
Views may differ from other SMBC research; trading desks may hold inconsistent positions and the document is not a research report.
Quarterly GDP path is unusually volatile (5.0% then 0.7%), so the Q3 spike could prove temporary or overstated.

Corresponding source evidence

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