BCRP Holds, Chilean CPI Undershoots, Mexican CPI Picks UpGLOBAL ECONOMICS
中文标题
BCRP维持利率不变，智利CPI低于预期，墨西哥CPI上行 · 全球经济
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Peru's central bank unexpectedly held its policy rate at 4.25% for a 13th straight month, contrary to market consensus favoring a hike. Chile's September CPI rose 0.4% m/m, keeping annual inflation at 4.1%, while Mexico's headline inflation edged up to 3.45% y/y as non-core pressures rebounded. The report suggests Peru may hike if inflation expectations rise; Chile faces upside risks from peso weakness and El Niño; Mexico's core inflation remains below 4%.
- Institution
- Scotiabank Economics
- Published
- 10/08/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation
- Time horizon
- 2026 · year-end 2026
Key arguments
- Peru's BCRP held rates at 4.25% despite 9 of 13 analysts expecting a 25bp hike, as core inflation excluding food, energy, and transport remained below target midpoint at 1.8%.
- Chile's September CPI undershot expectations at 0.4% m/m, but Scotiabank expects year-end 2026 inflation at 5.0%, above forwards, citing labor market and peso depreciation pressures.
- Mexico's headline inflation rose to 3.45% y/y, below consensus, but non-core inflation rebounded sharply to 2.45% y/y, driven by agricultural and energy prices.
- Upside inflation risks persist: El Niño and Middle East geopolitical tensions could make inflationary effects more persistent across the region.
Key numbers
- Peru policy rate
- 4.25%
- Chile September CPI m/m
- 0.4%
- Chile annual inflation
- 4.1%
- Mexico headline inflation y/y
- 3.45%
- Mexico core inflation y/y
- 3.75%
Main risks
- Peru: If 12-month inflation expectations continue to rise and higher energy prices spill over into other consumer basket components, the likelihood of a BCRP rate hike would increase.
- Chile: Weak demand may be insufficient to offset cost pressures from labor market developments and multilateral depreciation of the Chilean peso, keeping inflation above forecast.
- Mexico: Non-core inflation rebound driven by volatile agricultural and energy prices could persist, potentially pushing headline inflation higher.
Corresponding source evidence
Of the 13 analysts surveyed, nine expected a 25 basis point increase, while four analysts (including ourselves) anticipated no change in the policy rate.
On an annual basis, headline inflation increased from 4.4% to 4.5%, mainly due to higher energy prices, while core inflation remained unchanged at 4.5%.
Meanwhile, y/y inflation excluding food, energy, and transportation remained below the midpoint of the target range, reaching 1.8% in September.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Scotiabank Economics on 10/08/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction