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MUFG's Q3 2026 review shows earnings absorbing a global duration selloff: Brent rose 42% to about $104, gold gained 3.7% to $4,517, and the 10-year UST yield climbed 68bp to 5.28%, with 30-year yields at multi-decade highs. The dollar firmed modestly and…
France's budget buys time but leaves structural deficits unresolved, keeping OAT-Bund spreads at risk of widening from 130bp toward 150bp. History suggests the euro's muted reaction could reverse, with a 3% risk premium buildup implying EUR/USD at 1.110 and…
The Eurosystem is advancing the retail digital euro alongside the Pontes and Appia projects to keep central bank money relevant as payments digitalise and cash use declines. Two safeguards aim to limit disintermediation: a maximum holding balance, with some…
MUFG's October 2026 FX outlook sees a US dollar-led world: DXY closed September up 2.0% after the Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00%, with 10-year UST yields up 53bps. Six G10 central banks hiked, and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz closure keeps energy prices elevated.…
The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to 5.25%, about 50bp higher than end-August, driven by higher real yields and Fed rate-hike repricing. A fair-value regression using ISM new orders and USD 2y5y swaption volatility shows yields deviating significantly…
Istat's September 2026 surveys show Italian household and business confidence weakening, with consumer morale at 91.2 and the IESI at 95.9, dragged by construction, services and retail. Manufacturing was the exception, rising for a fifth month to 91.9 on…
The dollar remains supported by rising back-end yields, even after soft US consumer confidence (81.9) and JOLTS openings (7,079k) cut October FOMC hike pricing to 12bp. EUR/USD slid to 1.1310-20 before trading near 1.1350; further weakness toward 1.10 is…
Barclays Research's Q4 2026 Global Outlook argues that despite headwinds such as oil above $100, renewed geopolitical tensions, higher interest rates and rising bond yields, the foundations of global growth remain intact. Strong corporate earnings, an…
UOB projects the US economy stays resilient but bifurcated into 2027, with the Fed on hold through 2026 and cuts resuming only in 2027; a September hike remains a live risk. Fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and debt above US$40tn keep long-end UST yields…
Intesa Sanpaolo expects Italy's GDP to grow 0.9% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, with the unemployment rate revised to 5.5% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027. Services and exports drive activity, but productivity stagnates and structural gaps persist. Exports surprised on…
State Street Investment Management argues that nature degradation and biodiversity loss create financially material risks for companies whose operations and supply chains depend on ecosystem services. IPBES is cited as estimating that more than half of global…
Eurozone ESI fell to 97.9 in September from 98.4, the first decline in four months, driven by consumer confidence dropping to -16.5 amid rising fuel prices. Manufacturing and services sentiment improved. Selling-price expectations rose only in manufacturing…
OCBC's credit weekly reports an accelerating sell-off driven by rates: UST yields rose 5-11bp at the front end and up to 18bp at the long end. IG spreads proved more resilient than HY, though IG's longer duration produced larger negative total returns and…
US equities fell Monday as US-Iran ceasefire talks stalled, pushing Brent toward USD107/bbl. The S&P 500 lost 0.8%, erasing its September gain; the Nasdaq fell 0.9% and the Dow 0.7%. The 10Y UST yield rose about 7-9bp to 5.24-5.25%, a 19-year high, with the…
Dovish ECB comments and Gulf tensions have tilted EUR/USD risks to the downside; the pair may test summer lows of 1.1320-30 if US data surprise. The RBA hiked to 4.60% but admitted considering a hold, pressuring AUD below 0.700. Oil at $107/bbl keeps bond…
Based on BIS locational banking data, Asia's claims on the GCC grew faster than the rest of the world, with Hong Kong's claims rising $72bn from 2019 to Q1 2026 and the GCC's share up to 4.4% from 2.0%; Korea's share fell to 4.8% from 6.6%. Bloomberg…
OCBC's 28 Sep 2026 snapshot flags a data-heavy week capped by Friday's US nonfarm payrolls (consensus ~100k, unemployment 4.2%) and core PCE (0.3% m/m). The Trump-Xi meeting extended the trade truce to 10 January with reciprocal tariff cuts on ~USD30bn of…
The ECB could raise rates in December unless the Gulf crisis resolves quickly, as energy costs push euro area inflation higher while consumption and confidence stay fragile. The UK and Japan are slowing but rate rises are still likely by year-end. In the US,…
Intesa Sanpaolo forecasts Italy's gross government issuance at EUR545bn in 2026, down from an estimated EUR547bn in 2025, with net issuance of EUR100bn. The plan features EUR256bn of BTPs and EUR183bn of BOTs, alongside BTP inflation-linked (EUR34bn), CCTeu…
Intesa Sanpaolo's fixed income note projects 2026 euro area gross government issuance of EUR 1,484bn, down from EUR 1,330bn... correction: the comparison shows 2026 gross issuance of EUR 1,484bn versus EUR 1,330bn in the prior year, with redemptions of EUR…