Credit Week in Brief

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信用周报

OCBC Research09/29/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

OCBC's credit weekly reports an accelerating sell-off driven by rates: UST yields rose 5-11bp at the front end and up to 18bp at the long end. IG spreads proved more resilient than HY, though IG's longer duration produced larger negative total returns and outflows. US HY yields exceeded 8% for the first time since Liberation Day, with spreads 27bp wider. Primary markets stayed functional: USD34bn printed in the US and USD16.5bn in Asia dollar bonds, including SoftBank's USD10bn for OpenAI investments.

Institution: OCBC Research
Published: 09/29/2026
Research topic: Crude Oil (WTI)
Time horizon: September 2026 · May 2019 · June 2026 · January 2027

Crude Oil (WTI) · WTI

Key arguments

Rates, not credit fundamentals, drove the sell-off; UST curve steepened with long-end yields up to 18bp higher.
IG spreads were more resilient than HY, but IG's longer duration produced larger total-return losses and outflows.
US HY yields topped 8% for the first time since Liberation Day, with spreads ending 27bp wider.
Primary markets remained functional despite the sell-off, with heavy US and Asia dollar supply.

Key numbers

US IG OAS w/w change: 5bp wider to 80bp (yield 5.93%)
US HY OAS w/w change: 27bp wider to 294bp (yield 8.10%)
Asia USD IG OAS w/w change: 1bp wider to 55bp (yield 5.58%)
Asia USD HY OAS w/w change: 8bp wider to 331bp (yield 8.38%)
US and Asia primary supply: USD34bn US; USD16.5bn Asia dollar bonds

Main risks

Further long-end UST yield increases could extend IG duration-driven losses and outflows.
HY all-in yields above 8% could pressure weaker issuers' refinancing capacity.
Heavy primary supply, including large hyperscaler and SoftBank issuance, could widen spreads.

Corresponding source evidence

Credit Week in Brief OCBC Group Research 29 September 2026 • Last week saw a further acceleration in the credit market sell-off, driven by rates move. · September 2026
Despite energy supply disruptions and elevated oil prices that have raised firms’ input costs, corporate balance sheets are generally sound.
• Despite energy supply disruptions and elevated oil prices that have raised firms’ input costs, corporate balance sheets are generally sound though it sees a reassessment of AI as a key risk factor.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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