Fx daily october fed hike remains very data dependent
中文标题
外汇日报：10月美联储加息仍高度依赖数据
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
The dollar remains supported by rising back-end yields, even after soft US consumer confidence (81.9) and JOLTS openings (7,079k) cut October FOMC hike pricing to 12bp. EUR/USD slid to 1.1310-20 before trading near 1.1350; further weakness toward 1.10 is possible if US data is hot. The yen is the sole exception to dollar strength, while CHF faces downside risk after the dovish SNB. The bank remains bearish on CEE currencies, with EUR/HUF seen testing 368-370.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/30/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · USD/JPY · Crude Oil (WTI)
- Time horizon
- Not explicitly stated
Key arguments
- Soft US data cut October Fed hike pricing to 12bp, but the dollar still strengthened as rising back-end yields weighed on risk sentiment and higher-beta currencies.
- EUR/USD fell below summer lows to 1.1310-20; the move was dollar-driven, and a hot US data surprise could push it toward 1.10.
- The yen is the sole exception to broad dollar strength, supported by intervention risk and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades; CHF faces greater downside risk after the dovish SNB.
- The bank remains bearish on CEE currencies amid a stronger dollar, high energy prices and global uncertainty; EUR/HUF may test 368-370.
Key numbers
- October FOMC hike pricing
- 12bp
- US consumer confidence (September)
- 81.9
- JOLTS job openings (August)
- 7,079k
- EUR/USD low
- 1.1310-20
- Poland headline CPI forecast (September)
- 4.2% YoY
Main risks
- A hot US data surprise (ADP, PCE, CPI) could revive October Fed hike bets toward 20bp, triggering another leg lower in EUR/USD toward 1.10.
- Crowded long positioning and Hungary's heavy energy import reliance leave the forint vulnerable; EUR/HUF may test 368-370.
- Romania's government confidence vote is expected to fail, potentially pushing EUR/RON higher on renewed political uncertainty.
Corresponding source evidence
Expect more front-end rate action today with PCE and ADP releases.
Beyond the lingering threat of FX intervention, the unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades may also be providing support.
The impact was visible in front-end rates, which moved lower alongside a modest decline in oil prices.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
Verify at the original source ↗Loading the document…
AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/30/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction