Daily Treasury OutlookHighlights
中文标题
每日国债展望 · 摘要
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
US equities fell Monday as US-Iran ceasefire talks stalled, pushing Brent toward USD107/bbl. The S&P 500 lost 0.8%, erasing its September gain; the Nasdaq fell 0.9% and the Dow 0.7%. The 10Y UST yield rose about 7-9bp to 5.24-5.25%, a 19-year high, with the 30Y above 5.5%. Markets priced roughly a 70% chance of a 25bp October hike. Nvidia rose on a USD150b buyback. In Asia, Singapore IP jumped 15.4% YoY, China industrial profits rose 15.7% YTD, and India IP beat at 8.0% YoY. The RBA is expected to hike 25bp to 4.60%.
- Institution
- OCBC Research
- Published
- 09/29/2026
- Research topic
- Fed Policy · Inflation · NVIDIA
- Time horizon
- 2026 · 2027
Key arguments
- Stalled US-Iran ceasefire talks and uncertainty over reopening the Strait of Hormuz keep oil elevated and reignite inflation fears.
- Treasury yields at multi-decade highs reflect markets pricing a more aggressive Fed path, with about 70% odds of a 25bp October hike.
- Asian industrial data remain solid but uneven: Singapore and India beat on AI and investment demand, while China's August retail sales slowed to 0.4%.
- The RBA is expected to hike 25bp to 4.60% today amid Australia's relatively resilient domestic backdrop.
Key numbers
- Brent crude
- USD105.28/bbl, +0.9%
- US 10Y Treasury yield
- 5.24-5.25%, +7-9bp, 19-year high
- October Fed hike probability
- 70.3% for 25bp
- Singapore August industrial production
- +15.4% YoY
- China Jan-Aug industrial profits
- +15.7% YoY; August +4.2% YoY
Main risks
- Further escalation or collapse of US-Iran talks could push oil above current levels, deepening inflation and yield pressure.
- A more aggressive Fed tightening path could trigger broader risk-asset de-rating, particularly in equity and credit markets.
- China's uneven recovery and slowing August retail sales, alongside proposed US chip sanctions, remain drags on regional sentiment.
Corresponding source evidence
Looking ahead, we expect industrial production to grow 6.0% YoY for the remaining four months of the year, which would bring full-year manufacturing growth to 9.0% YoY.
Capital goods output remained particularly strong at 16.9%, pointing to continued investment momentum, while softer consumer non-durables growth suggests the expansion remains more investment-led than consumption-led.
In Australia, the main focus will be the RBA policy decision, where our house call is for a 25bp hike from 4.35% to 4.60%.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · FED
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by OCBC Research on 09/29/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction