Commodities, FX and Rates
中文标题
大宗商品、外汇与利率
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Istat's September 2026 surveys show Italian household and business confidence weakening, with consumer morale at 91.2 and the IESI at 95.9, dragged by construction, services and retail. Manufacturing was the exception, rising for a fifth month to 91.9 on stronger order assessments. The data are consistent with GDP slowing to around 0.1% q/q in H2 after 0.24% in H1, with full-year 2026 growth at 0.9% and 2027 at 0.8%. Perceived inflation jumped to 124.6.
- Institution
- Intesa Sanpaolo
- Published
- 09/30/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation
- Time horizon
- November 2022 · next year · April 2020
Key arguments
- Rising energy prices are weighing on consumer and trade/services confidence, while construction suffers from the residential correction and less generous fiscal bonuses.
- Manufacturing resilience, led by capital goods and supported by AI and defence demand plus German demand recovery, contrasts with weakness elsewhere.
- Surveys support a GDP slowdown to around 0.1% q/q in H2, with the main downside risk being consumption, expected to trough at 0.1% q/q around the turn of the year.
- Labour market resilience is inconsistent with a negative quarterly change in consumption or GDP, limiting the slowdown.
Key numbers
- Consumer confidence (Sep)
- 91.2, from 94.5 in Aug
- IESI business confidence (Sep)
- 95.9, from 97.0 in Aug
- Manufacturing confidence (Sep)
- 91.9, from 90.2 in Aug; fifth consecutive rise
- Household perceived inflation
- 124.6, from 96.8; highest since Jan 2024
- GDP growth
- 0.24% q/q avg H1; ~0.1% q/q expected H2; 2026e 0.9%, 2027e 0.8%
Main risks
- Consumption may underperform as higher natural gas prices feed through to electricity and gas bills.
- A survey operator change could create discontinuities in consumer confidence data versus previous months.
- The residential construction correction, driven by reduced fiscal bonuses and higher interest rates, may persist.
Corresponding source evidence
Overall, the surveys appear consistent with our expectation of a slowdown in GDP in the second half of the year (aro und 0.1% q/q) following a first half that was significantly better than expected (0.24% q/q on average in the first two quarters).
Consumer confidence has deteriorated again after two months of recovery, falling to 91.2 from 94.5 in August (the consensus had expected it to remain broadly stable ).This figure is influenced by a change in the operator managing the survey network , which could lead to discontinuities when comparing results with those from previous months.
Conversely, both assessments and , above all, expectations regarding the economic situation among respondents show a recovery (in the case of expectations, the monthly rise isthe largest since November 2022), whilst fears of unemployment have fallen for the fifth month running.
· November 2022
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
Verify at the original source ↗Loading the document…
AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Intesa Sanpaolo on 09/30/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction