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Natixis expects euro area headline inflation at 3.55% yoy in September, up from 3.25% in August, with core at 2.55% from 2.40%. Rising energy prices are the primary driver: Brent near $102/bbl, up 51% yoy, is set to exert stronger upward pressure on headline.…
This is Intesa Sanpaolo's macroeconomic calendar for 28 September–2 October 2026, listing scheduled data releases and central bank events for the US, eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, China and Switzerland. Consensus points to a US September…
Intesa Sanpaolo's fixed income note projects 2026 euro area gross government issuance of EUR 1,484bn, down from EUR 1,330bn... correction: the comparison shows 2026 gross issuance of EUR 1,484bn versus EUR 1,330bn in the prior year, with redemptions of EUR…
Intesa Sanpaolo forecasts Spanish government gross issuance of EUR285bn in 2026, down from an estimated EUR276bn in 2025, with net issuance of EUR54bn versus EUR61bn. Redemptions total EUR230bn. Letras gross issuance rises to EUR116bn while Bonos &…
Natixis expects one more Fed hike in December and an elevated U.S. Treasury curve, keeping the Mexican peso under pressure. Banxico held its policy rate at 6.50% unanimously in September, stating it will not react mechanically to U.S. monetary policy but will…
The CNB's September minutes read more hawkish than the press conference, with the board judging inflation risks tilted to the upside. Core inflation, services prices, food and an oil-driven energy shock are cited, alongside above-target wage growth. ING…
Global markets stayed resilient after a rates sell-off, with the 10-year UST yield rising about 8bp to 5.20% and futures pricing a 71% chance of an October Fed hike. Supporting data: jobless claims at 197k and new-home sales up 6.4%. Norway hiked, Sweden…
Commodities showed resilience despite the US 10-year yield hitting a 19-year high above 5.2% and a stronger dollar. Precious metals fell about 2% with gold down 1.8% to test $4,235 support. Industrial metals gained 0.8%, led by copper up 1.5% on tight China…
Saxo's 25 September options brief reports MOVE, the Treasury volatility index, closed above 100 for the first time in its three-month store, rising 9.56% to 104.58, while the S&P 500 closed just 0.02% lower. The 30-year yield touched 5.50%, its highest since…
Energy-market rebalancing is slipping further away. The partial Hormuz blockade, Red Sea disruption and attacks on Saudi infrastructure keep oil and gas prices elevated, lifting inflation and delaying rate cuts. Under the baseline, assuming oil below $80 from…
The dollar starts next week dominant, near two-month highs, supported by a hawkish Fed and Treasury yields at multi-decade peaks; markets price an 83% chance of a further October hike. EUR/USD sits near 1.14 after a 300-pip monthly slide, GBP/USD near 1.32,…
The September US jobs report, due Friday, is expected to show roughly 100k jobs added with unemployment holding at 4.1%, leaving an October Fed rate hike in play, with a downward revision to August also anticipated. Eurozone inflation data will be watched for…
ING expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike the cash rate 25bp to 4.6% on 29 September 2026, citing sticky trimmed mean inflation at 3.6% y/y, resilient labour demand (three-month average job creation of 34k, participation at a record 67.1%) and higher…
Eurozone M3 money supply grew 3.5% year-on-year in August 2026, up from 3.4% in July, while private-sector credit rose 3.6%. Household loan growth held at 3.1%, corporate loans slowed to 4.2% from 4.4%. The ECB's balance sheet reduction still weighs on M3.…
USD strength has slowed and looks stretched near-term. Thursday's long-end Treasury yield rise failed to lift the dollar as it had before, while the short end stalled after Wednesday's PMI-driven jump, implying the market is wary of pricing more Fed…
Saxo Bank's quick take notes Brent trading near USD 105.4 after a USD 10 weekly range, as talk of a Qatar-mediated phased Strait of Hormuz deal with Iran offsets Houthi missile attacks on Saudi cities. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.50%, its highest…
A global bond sell-off has pushed back-end yields higher, triggering risk-off flows that help the dollar consolidate recent gains. Oil remains bid after a failed UN summit and scepticism over US-Iran talks, keeping upside risks for rates. ING sees Brent…
Scotiabank's week-ahead preview sees September US nonfarm payrolls at 75k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, fading August's 162k as weather, local-government education and leisure hiring reverse. Canada's July GDP is tracked near +0.1% m/m with Q3 around 2%…
The yen is the top performer after Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said President Trump expressed concern over yen weakness, while Growth Minister Kiuchi noted the communication that rate hikes are on the radar. US Treasury yields fell modestly, tightly…
US Treasury yields extended their selloff, with 2s10s steepening about 6bp, and Brent rose another 3.4% on Middle East geopolitical risk, keeping the external backdrop difficult for Asia FX. DXY advanced 0.2% to 101.285, with THB (-0.7%) and IDR (-0.6%)…