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China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September, the first expansion in three months and in line with consensus. The non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly returned to 50.2 versus 49.2 expected. Production hit a 2026 high of 51.7, while price…
US data softened: Conference Board consumer confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9, its lowest in over a decade, and August JOLTS openings dropped to 7.08m from 7.34m. NY Fed's Williams saw no urgency to tighten, cutting implied odds of another hike next meeting…
UOB projects the US economy stays resilient but bifurcated into 2027, with the Fed on hold through 2026 and cuts resuming only in 2027; a September hike remains a live risk. Fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and debt above US$40tn keep long-end UST yields…
New York Fed President Williams' less hawkish remarks (one more hike 'late this year', no urgency) helped pull US 2-year yields about 5bp lower to 4.88% and trim October hike odds, though Barr and Musalem stayed hawkish. August job openings fell to 7.1mn (vs…
The dollar index reached 101.61, close to June's 101.80 year-to-date high, before New York Fed President Williams pushed back against an October hike, saying there is "no need for urgency." Markets pared October hike pricing to about 12bp from 18bp. Williams…
BNP Paribas data as of 25 September 2026 show Brent at $104.26, gold at $4,280/oz, and US 10-year Treasury yield at 5.16%. EUR/USD at 1.14, USD/JPY at 157.17. Yields rose across most maturities, with 1-week changes positive for 2Y and 5Y but negative for 10Y.…
Advanced economies showed broad September strength. Eurozone composite PMI reached 53.1, its highest since April 2023, with services output prices at 56.1 spreading the energy shock. Germany's composite rose to 53.8 and Ifo hit 89.9; France returned to…
The UK government's pension triple-lock reform and absence of inflationary policies reduce the tail risk of a Labour-driven inflation spiral, a positive for gilts. However, US rates and energy prices remain the dominant drivers, keeping sterling rates…
This Scotiabank Economics calendar lists October 2026 release dates for the US, Canada, eurozone, UK and Japan. Highlights include FOMC and Bank of Canada meetings alongside the ECB, plus US CPI, eurozone CPI and GDP, and Canada GDP, CPI and jobs. The…
Intesa Sanpaolo expects Italy's GDP to grow 0.9% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, with the unemployment rate revised to 5.5% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027. Services and exports drive activity, but productivity stagnates and structural gaps persist. Exports surprised on…
The September Fed hike temporarily closes the window for broad USD weakness, as markets shift from pricing cuts to hikes. Amundi still expects the Fed to deliver less tightening than priced, so any renewed dollar strength should be limited and weakness should…
Natixis' survey of 45 respondents on Brazil's October 4 election shows a split market reaction. A Lula win is dominated by fiscal-responsibility concerns (76%), with 83% expecting USD/BRL above 5.30 by end-October. A Flavio Bolsonaro win is seen as…
Scotiabank's Derek Holt previews a data-heavy session that includes Canadian GDP for July and a Bank of Canada speech on repo markets and monetary policy implementation. He expects modest market moves, with US consumer confidence, JOLTS and Fed speakers also…
Eurozone ESI fell to 97.9 in September from 98.4, the first decline in four months, driven by consumer confidence dropping to -16.5 amid rising fuel prices. Manufacturing and services sentiment improved. Selling-price expectations rose only in manufacturing…
This institutional research article addresses the practical challenges of applying sustainability preferences within fixed income portfolios, with specific attention to sovereign bond holdings. The authors note that carbon intensity figures reported for…
US equities fell Monday as US-Iran ceasefire talks stalled, pushing Brent toward USD107/bbl. The S&P 500 lost 0.8%, erasing its September gain; the Nasdaq fell 0.9% and the Dow 0.7%. The 10Y UST yield rose about 7-9bp to 5.24-5.25%, a 19-year high, with the…
Dovish ECB comments and Gulf tensions have tilted EUR/USD risks to the downside; the pair may test summer lows of 1.1320-30 if US data surprise. The RBA hiked to 4.60% but admitted considering a hold, pressuring AUD below 0.700. Oil at $107/bbl keeps bond…
Japanese officials escalated verbal warnings against yen weakness, with the chief currency official citing a "very clear" message from Japan and the US and the finance minister calling yen undervaluation a problem. USD/JPY fell to an intra-day low of 156.51…
A 25 September 2026 snapshot ranked implied volatility for 511 option underlyings against their own past year. Valero and EWZ hit IV rank 100, while Broadcom and NVIDIA sat near their own floors. Rank and percentile diverged for names like Deutz and HYG. The…
Gold steadied near USD 4,125 after hitting a seven-week low as US 10-year Treasury yields rose above 5.25%, a level rarely seen since 2002. The 30-year hit 5.58% and the 2-year 4.95%. President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,…