Daily Treasury OutlookHighlights
中文标题
每日国债展望 · 要闻
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
US data softened: Conference Board consumer confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9, its lowest in over a decade, and August JOLTS openings dropped to 7.08m from 7.34m. NY Fed's Williams saw no urgency to tighten, cutting implied odds of another hike next meeting from ~70% to near 50%; 2Y yields fell 5-6bp while the 30Y briefly hit 5.62%, highest since 2002. The RBA hiked 25bp to 4.60% with a tightening bias. WTI fell 3.5% on a 40m-barrel SPR release.
- Institution
- OCBC Research
- Published
- 09/30/2026
- Research topic
- Fed Policy · Inflation · S&P 500
- Time horizon
- long-term · 2025 · 2026
Key arguments
- US consumer confidence at a decade-plus low and cooling JOLTS openings point to softening demand and labour market.
- NY Fed Williams' view that further tightening is not urgent cut next-meeting hike odds from ~70% to near 50%, pulling 2Y yields 5-6bp lower.
- The RBA raised the cash rate 25bp to 4.60% with a tightening bias, warning slowing activity alone may not return inflation to target.
- China's State Council pledged stronger counter-cyclical policy, faster relending, and property-stabilisation measures, with follow-through next day.
Key numbers
- US Conference Board consumer confidence (Sep)
- 81.9, -6.7 points, lowest in over a decade
- US JOLTS job openings (Aug)
- 7.08m, down from 7.34m
- Fed hike probability next meeting
- near 50%, down from ~70%
- RBA cash rate
- 4.60%, +25bp
- WTI crude
- USD89.38/bbl, -3.5%
Main risks
- Oil supply disruptions tied to Middle East tensions could reverse the crude price drop and revive inflation pressure.
- The 30-year Treasury yield at 5.62% shows long-end yields remain elevated despite softer data, capping risk appetite.
- Markets may reprice Fed policy again if upcoming PCE inflation and GDP data surprise.
Corresponding source evidence
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, its lowest reading in over a decade, with both current conditions and expectations deteriorating.
Two-year yields fell around 5-6bp, while markets reduced the probability of another Fed hike at the next meeting from around 70% to near 50%.
Elsewhere, the RBA raised its cash rate by 25bp to 4.60%, citing stronger-than-expected growth, persistent inflation and the broader pass- through of higher energy costs.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · FED
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by OCBC Research on 09/30/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction