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Major central banks now reference broader financial conditions when setting policy. Using the Fed's FCI-G, PIMCO estimates conditions were about 50 bps too easy at end-2Q, implying a 70-bp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, a 9% equity decline, or a 4%…
Poland's flash CPI accelerated to 4.0% YoY in September from 3.4% in August, mainly due to a 9.2% MoM surge in fuel prices after the standard 23% VAT rate was reinstated. Core inflation eased to 3.0-3.1% YoY, suggesting limited broad price pressures. A…
French inflation surprised sharply to the upside in September 2026, with CPI at 3.0% and HICP at 3.4% year-on-year, driven mainly by a 21.2% energy price surge. ING expects headline inflation to stay above 3% through 2026 before gradually declining in 2027,…
The dollar remains supported by rising back-end yields, even after soft US consumer confidence (81.9) and JOLTS openings (7,079k) cut October FOMC hike pricing to 12bp. EUR/USD slid to 1.1310-20 before trading near 1.1350; further weakness toward 1.10 is…
Northwest European gas storage sits at 62% capacity, about 10bcm below year-ago levels, setting up a tight Q4-26 winter. Under the base case TTF averages €76/MWh, peaking at €80/MWh; an adverse cold winter scenario averages €122/MWh. The energy-driven shock…
China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September, the first expansion in three months and in line with consensus. The non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly returned to 50.2 versus 49.2 expected. Production hit a 2026 high of 51.7, while price…
UOB projects the US economy stays resilient but bifurcated into 2027, with the Fed on hold through 2026 and cuts resuming only in 2027; a September hike remains a live risk. Fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and debt above US$40tn keep long-end UST yields…
The dollar index reached 101.61, close to June's 101.80 year-to-date high, before New York Fed President Williams pushed back against an October hike, saying there is "no need for urgency." Markets pared October hike pricing to about 12bp from 18bp. Williams…
Advanced economies showed broad September strength. Eurozone composite PMI reached 53.1, its highest since April 2023, with services output prices at 56.1 spreading the energy shock. Germany's composite rose to 53.8 and Ifo hit 89.9; France returned to…
The UK government's pension triple-lock reform and absence of inflationary policies reduce the tail risk of a Labour-driven inflation spiral, a positive for gilts. However, US rates and energy prices remain the dominant drivers, keeping sterling rates…
This Scotiabank Economics calendar lists October 2026 release dates for the US, Canada, eurozone, UK and Japan. Highlights include FOMC and Bank of Canada meetings alongside the ECB, plus US CPI, eurozone CPI and GDP, and Canada GDP, CPI and jobs. The…
Intesa Sanpaolo expects Italy's GDP to grow 0.9% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, with the unemployment rate revised to 5.5% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027. Services and exports drive activity, but productivity stagnates and structural gaps persist. Exports surprised on…
Natixis' survey of 45 respondents on Brazil's October 4 election shows a split market reaction. A Lula win is dominated by fiscal-responsibility concerns (76%), with 83% expecting USD/BRL above 5.30 by end-October. A Flavio Bolsonaro win is seen as…
Scotiabank's Derek Holt previews a data-heavy session that includes Canadian GDP for July and a Bank of Canada speech on repo markets and monetary policy implementation. He expects modest market moves, with US consumer confidence, JOLTS and Fed speakers also…
Eurozone ESI fell to 97.9 in September from 98.4, the first decline in four months, driven by consumer confidence dropping to -16.5 amid rising fuel prices. Manufacturing and services sentiment improved. Selling-price expectations rose only in manufacturing…
Dovish ECB comments and Gulf tensions have tilted EUR/USD risks to the downside; the pair may test summer lows of 1.1320-30 if US data surprise. The RBA hiked to 4.60% but admitted considering a hold, pressuring AUD below 0.700. Oil at $107/bbl keeps bond…
Japanese officials escalated verbal warnings against yen weakness, with the chief currency official citing a "very clear" message from Japan and the US and the finance minister calling yen undervaluation a problem. USD/JPY fell to an intra-day low of 156.51…
Gold steadied near USD 4,125 after hitting a seven-week low as US 10-year Treasury yields rose above 5.25%, a level rarely seen since 2002. The 30-year hit 5.58% and the 2-year 4.95%. President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,…
Eurozone inflation and confidence data are secondary to global crosswinds, with second-round effects unlikely to appear this week. The ECB sees higher long-term rates as a growth headwind and maintains a measured response. Consumer confidence is the weak…
Invesco argues the structural AI bull market remains intact despite higher oil prices and interest rates stalling the broadening trade. Meta's Muse personal AI agent, launched September 8, became the top free US app, lifting Meta shares over 11% in a session…