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• Global economy forecast to grow 2.5% in 2026 despite the energy price shock • US gross domestic product growth forecast at 2.8% in 2026, with three 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate hikes expected • China growth forecast at 4.5% in…
Persistent UK inflation, Bank of England policy uncertainty and attractive front-end yields continue to shape opportunities for Sterling cash investors. August offered the Bank of England the rare luxury of not having a policy meeting and therefore no…
Article | 9 September 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Article | 9 September 2026 RATES Rates Spark: Sterling’s hawkish pricing still looks overdone UK rates look too hawkish relative to Bank of England guidance and macro fundamentals. But oil…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com SCOTIABANK FORECAST September 9, 2026 Contributors Olivier Gervais Director, Modelling and…
Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707…
The yen's sharp rally against the dollar is driven by hawkish BoJ expectations and potential GPIF changes, exacerbated by thin US holiday liquidity. While the move appears overdone, near-term risks of further carry trade unwinding make it dangerous to fade.…
ING Think reports that rising oil prices are pushing euro rates higher, but any growth disappointments could quickly trigger a bullish move in rates. The 2-year Bund yield is back to 3%, and the curve shows that only 30bp of the rise is due to inflation…
The global economy remains resilient in the face of a succession of shocks. While the energy shock is back with a vengeance, its effects are more idiosyncratic now, and much more impactful for Europe than the US. Meanwhile, a capex troika centred…
ING expects a single Fed rate hike in September 2026, delaying but not cancelling a cyclical dollar decline projected for spring 2027. EUR/USD is forecast to end 2026 around 1.16, with USD/JPY likely trading in a 155-160 range near term. High yielders and…
ING's September 2026 G10 FX outlook sees the dollar's downtrend delayed by an expected 25bp Fed hike on 16 September, prompting a cut in the year-end EUR/USD forecast. EUR/USD is expected to stay subdued until spring when US inflation approaches 2%. USD/JPY…
Westpac expects the RBNZ to keep the OCR unchanged in October before hiking by 25bp in December, with the OCR peaking at 3.28% by end-2029 and reaching 4% by September 2027. Inflation remains elevated, and the NZD is seen consolidating with a year-end target…
TD Economics' September 11, 2026 weekly review describes a market backdrop dominated by a deepening global bond selloff and a renewed energy shock. WTI crude briefly breached $100/bbl for the first time in four months amid periodic U.S.-Iran tensions over the…
Scotiabank Economics maintains its June forecast with Canada's growth expected at 0.9% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, while the Bank of Canada is likely to raise rates twice late this year. The US GDP growth forecast is 2.0% for 2026 and 1.9% for 2027, with the…
Scotiabank Economics expects the upcoming week to feature escalation risks in the Canada-US tariff war, with Canada imposing retaliatory tariffs on C$28 billion of US imports, while Canada pivots toward attracting C$1 trillion in investments over five years.…
In August 2026, global equities advanced, led by technology stocks amid strong earnings and AI investment, while bond markets faced rising yields and hawkish central bank signals. Commodities gained on agriculture and geopolitical concerns, with gold…
In August 2026, global equities rose, driven by strong tech earnings and AI investments, while bond yields increased on hawkish central bank signals. Commodities gained, led by agriculture, with gold supported by dollar weakness. The month ended with caution…
Intesa Sanpaolo's Forex Flash highlights a high-volatility FX environment driven by divergent central bank policies, with the Japanese yen outperforming as the BOJ is set to hike while the Fed may hold. The dollar is under short-term pressure, the euro is…
Scotiabank Economics' Daily Points for September 4, 2026, highlights that markets await US and Canadian jobs reports, with Canada testing recent strong momentum and US nonfarm payrolls expected to be lacklustre. German factory orders show strength, and BoC…
TD Economics notes a complicated outlook for Canada and nervous bond markets in the US, with the BoC holding at 2.25% but signaling hawkish risks from oil, while the Fed faces a close call on September rates amid strong data and rising yields.
Opinion | 4 September 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Opinion | 4 September 2026 COMMODITIES, FOOD & AGRI Why it matters where central banks keep their gold The Netherlands has moved part of its gold reserves from North America to…