Fx daily fight the yen at your own risk
中文标题
外汇日报：与日元对抗需自担风险
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
The yen's sharp rally against the dollar is driven by hawkish BoJ expectations and potential GPIF changes, exacerbated by thin US holiday liquidity. While the move appears overdone, near-term risks of further carry trade unwinding make it dangerous to fade. The dollar's broader weakness is tempered by strong payrolls and high energy prices, with a potential Fed hike next week. EUR/USD faces downside risks on Fed expectations, while GBP is supported by fiscal discipline. Hungarian inflation rebounded but remains below target, with the NBH potentially pausing cuts.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/08/2026
- Research topic
- US Dollar (DXY) · USD/JPY · EUR/USD
- Time horizon
- near-term · short-term
Key arguments
- Yen rally relies on optimistic BoJ tightening bets and GPIF changes, exacerbated by thin liquidity.
- USD/JPY broke through key support at 155.0 and extended to 153.0; next support at 152.0, then 150.0.
- Short-term fundamentals suggest yen move is overdone, but high volatility and carry trade unwinding make it risky to fade.
- Broader USD sentiment is affected but has room to improve, supported by strong payrolls and high energy prices.
- EUR/USD downside preference driven by USD view and expected Fed hike in September; eurozone terms of trade worsened.
- GBP supported by chancellor's fiscal discipline message, though no fiscal risk premium priced in.
- HUF inflation rebound below expectations; NBH may pause rate cuts in September, supporting forint.
Key numbers
- USD/JPY support level
- 152.0
- USD/JPY next support level
- 150.0
- Brent crude price
- near $100/bl
- Fed September hike pricing
- 15bp
- Eurozone Q2 GDP growth
- revised up to 0.6% QoQ
- European terms of trade level
- worse than March low
- EUR/USD forecast
- move towards 1.150 in coming weeks
- Hungarian inflation August
- 1.3% (from 1.2% in July)
Main risks
- Further carry trade unwinding could lead to additional yen appreciation beyond current levels.
- US CPI release on Friday could significantly impact dollar sentiment, potentially altering the Fed's tightening path.
- ECB meeting on Thursday may present dovish risks given aggressive market pricing of tightening.
- Rising energy prices could worsen eurozone terms of trade and pressure EUR.
- October UK budget headlines could test market confidence and introduce fiscal risk premium.
- Hungarian forint may face depreciation if energy prices continue to rise.
Corresponding source evidence
The broader USD sentiment remains affected, but has room to improve The yen can still extend its rally in the near term We have published the September edition of FX Talking: Don’t call it a dollar comeback with our latest FX views and forecasts.
· near-termThin liquidity due to the US holiday likely amplified yesterday’s USD/JPY sell-off, pushing the pair through the key 155.0 level before extending to 153.0 overnight.
The next meaningful support only comes in at 152.0, where the yen rally stalled in January and February.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · DXY
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/08/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction