Forecast Tables
中文标题
预测表
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Scotiabank Economics maintains its June forecast with Canada's growth expected at 0.9% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, while the Bank of Canada is likely to raise rates twice late this year. The US GDP growth forecast is 2.0% for 2026 and 1.9% for 2027, with the Fed cutting rates to 3.25% by end-2026. Oil prices are expected to average $70 in 2027, and gold is forecast at $4,350 in 2026 and $4,200 in 2027.
- Institution
- Scotiabank Economics
- Published
- 09/04/2026
- Research topic
- Commodity price · Crude Oil (WTI) · Inflation
- Time horizon
- 2027 · Near term · 2026
Key arguments
- Canada is emerging from its soft patch with Q2 2026 growth at 2.8% q/q annualized and stronger momentum through the year.
- US inflation has surprised to the upside, keeping the Fed cautious and delaying rate cuts to next year.
- Oil prices declined but remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions, with a forecast of US$70 in 2027.
- Underlying Canadian inflation pressures remain elevated, supporting the case for Bank of Canada rate hikes late this year.
- The BoC and Fed are on different policy tracks, with the BoC expected to raise rates while the Fed holds then cuts.
Key numbers
- Canada 2026f GDP growth
- 0.9%
- Canada 2027f GDP growth
- 2.2%
- US 2026f GDP growth
- 2.0%
- US 2027f GDP growth
- 1.9%
- WTI 2027f average
- US$70/bbl
- Gold 2026f
- US$4,350/oz
- Gold 2027f
- US$4,200/oz
- US Fed upper bound end-2026
- 3.25%
Main risks
- Persistent geopolitical tensions could push oil prices higher, lifting inflation and requiring stronger monetary policy response.
- Upside risk from US fiscal policy could boost demand and keep the Fed on a more hawkish path.
- CUSMA renegotiation risks remain a downside risk for Canada if negotiations lead to an adverse outcome.
Corresponding source evidence
However, we continue to expect oil prices to settle around US$70 in 2027, broadly in line with our previous forecast ( chart 2 ).
· 2027Inflation has continued to surprise to the upside in both headline and core measures, reinforcing the case for caution from the Fed.
· Near termWhile headline inflation remains relatively well behaved, underlying cost pressures continue to run at levels that are inconsistent with a comfortable return to target.
· 2026
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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Publisher disclaimer
AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · WTI
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank EconomicsForecast Tables | 09/04/2026 | Neutral | — | 2027 average |
| MUFGMiddle East Daily | 10/16/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| Saxo BankCommodity weekly Gold steadies as oil tightness and growth fears divide markets | 10/16/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| Commonwealth BankIran war: more oil is flowing, but the risk of escalation is growing | 10/15/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Scotiabank Economics on 09/04/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction