GLOBAL ECONOMICSTHE GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD

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全球经济学 · 全球周报前瞻

Scotiabank Economics09/04/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Scotiabank Economics expects the upcoming week to feature escalation risks in the Canada-US tariff war, with Canada imposing retaliatory tariffs on C$28 billion of US imports, while Canada pivots toward attracting C$1 trillion in investments over five years. US CPI data (Friday) could influence September Fed hike pricing, with consensus for +0.4% total and +0.3% core m/m. The ECB is fully expected to hike 25bps on Thursday, with focus on future guidance. Several other central banks (Chile, Peru, Turkey, Russia) are expected to hold rates. Canada's FDI and banking sector are highlighted as investment positives.

Institution: Scotiabank Economics
Published: 09/04/2026
Research topic: Canadian banks · CAD
Time horizon: long_term

Key arguments

US CPI data on Friday is critical for Fed September hike pricing, currently at 17bps of a quarter-point hike priced.
Canada is expected to impose tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% on about C$28 billion of US imports on Tuesday, with US retaliation risk.
Canada aims to attract C$1 trillion in investments over five years, supported by C$280 billion in government inducements, with strong FDI momentum.
ECB is fully priced to hike deposit rate by 25bps on Thursday, with future path uncertain amid elevated energy prices and wage growth.
Several central banks (BCCh, BCRP, Turkey, Russia) are expected to hold rates, with varying hawkish/bias risks.
Canadian banks' attractiveness is supported by US market consolidation trends and Canada's strong FDI confidence ranking (#2 globally).

Key numbers

US CPI m/m forecast: 0.4%
US Core CPI m/m forecast: 0.3%
Canada tariff amount on US imports: C$28 billion
Canada 5-year investment target: C$1 trillion
ECB deposit rate current: 2.25%
ECB expected hike: 25bps
BCCh policy rate: 4.50%
BCRP policy rate: 4.25%

Main risks

US CPI could surprise to the upside, increasing the likelihood of a Fed hike in September.
Canada-US tariff war could escalate further, impacting trade and investment.
ECB's future rate path may diverge from market expectations due to energy price shocks.
Geopolitical tensions (Middle East conflict) could drive energy prices higher, fueling inflation globally.

Corresponding source evidence

It is untrue that Canada does not allow US banks to operate within the country. · long_term

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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