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每周底线 · TD经济

TD Economics / TD Securities09/04/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

TD Economics notes a complicated outlook for Canada and nervous bond markets in the US, with the BoC holding at 2.25% but signaling hawkish risks from oil, while the Fed faces a close call on September rates amid strong data and rising yields.

Institution: TD Economics / TD Securities
Published: 09/04/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% but leaned hawkish on oil-driven inflation risks.
Canada's August employment fell by 41k but unemployment stable at 6.4%.
US payrolls rose 162k in August, beating expectations, with unemployment steady at 4.1%.
Treasury yields rose with 10-year touching 4.82%, driven by oil, debt concerns, and Fed uncertainty.
TD expects Fed to stay on hold in September but acknowledges sensitivity to CPI data.

Key numbers

Bank of Canada policy rate: 2.25%
Canada August employment change: -41.7k
Canada unemployment rate: 6.4%
US August payrolls: 162k
US unemployment rate: 4.1%
10-year Treasury yield high: 4.82%
WTI oil price: $90/bbl

Main risks

If CPI hot, Fed may hike more than one or two quarters.
Prolonged Middle East conflict keeps oil elevated, increasing inflation risks.
Trade tensions could lead to volatile trade flows and affect growth.
Rising Treasury yields may tighten financial conditions even if Fed on hold.

Corresponding source evidence

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