FXT Final September 2 1

中文标题

FXT最终九月21

ING THINK09/07/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

ING expects a single Fed rate hike in September 2026, delaying but not cancelling a cyclical dollar decline projected for spring 2027. EUR/USD is forecast to end 2026 around 1.16, with USD/JPY likely trading in a 155-160 range near term. High yielders and commodity currencies (AUD, NOK) remain supported, while the yen faces downside risks if US-Japan policy coordination is underestimated. The US dollar is seen better supported against low yielders into early 2027 due to a flatter yield curve.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 09/07/2026
Research topic: interest rate differentials · EUR/CHF · EM FX strategy
Time horizon: medium term

Key arguments

ING house view now favours a Fed rate hike later this month, with a 25bp hike to 4.00% on 16 September.
Bearish flattening of the US yield curve is typically positive for the dollar, especially against the low yielders.
Forecast dollar decline is delayed not cancelled, pushed back to next spring when US inflation should have dropped close to 2%.
USD/JPY looks more likely to trade a 155-160 range than immediately drop under 150.
High yielders should remain favoured given what should continue to be a low volatility world.

Key numbers

EUR/USD year-end forecast: 1.16
Fed funds rate after hike: 4.00%
USD/JPY near-term range: 155-160
US inflation target: 2%

Main risks

If Washington lost control of the bond market, the dollar drop could come earlier.
Uncertainty around US mid-term results in November could trigger an earlier dollar decline.
Downside risks for USD/JPY prevail if underestimating a Washington-Tokyo policy accord.

Corresponding source evidence

while a higher interest rate environment should keep the Swiss franc on the back foot. · medium term
Within EM, high yielders should remain favoured given what should continue to be a low volatility world. · medium term

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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