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Global rates rose and pulled New Zealand along. Strong US data and resurgent oil pushed US yields higher, lifting NZ rates and cutting the trade-weighted index 4% below the RBNZ's September MPS assumption. Markets price about a 75% chance of an OCR hike on 28…
Westpac expects the RBA to hike the cash rate 25bp to 4.60% at its September meeting, with a split vote likely amid disagreement over trend supply capacity. August CPI is forecast at 0.4%mth with upside risk, trimmed mean at 0.2%mth. Employment rose 39.5k but…
Scotiabank's Latam Weekly previews Chile GDP, Peru CPI and Colombia's BanRep decision, plus Mexican trade and Brazilian industrial production, ahead of Friday's US nonfarm payrolls. BanRep is likely to hold at 12.00%. Despite weak Chilean activity, the BCCh's…
ING expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike the cash rate 25bp to 4.6% on 29 September 2026, citing sticky trimmed mean inflation at 3.6% y/y, resilient labour demand (three-month average job creation of 34k, participation at a record 67.1%) and higher…
ING expects the RBA to raise rates 25bp, citing tight labour markets, upside Q2 GDP surprise and firm inflation; August CPI seen at 4.1% YoY. China's official manufacturing PMI is forecast at 50.1 and non-manufacturing at 49.2. Japan's services PPI seen at…
Westpac's September 2026 Housing Pulse says Australia's housing correction has broadened and intensified since early 2026. Turnover may be stabilising but at a weak level, with prices still falling. With underlying inflation above the RBA's 2-3% target and…
Scotiabank's week-ahead preview sees September US nonfarm payrolls at 75k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, fading August's 162k as weather, local-government education and leisure hiring reverse. Canada's July GDP is tracked near +0.1% m/m with Q3 around 2%…
MUFG flags contagion risk after the 2-year UST yield jumped 72bp in 21 days, the largest such move since March 2023. Forced selling by fast money could trigger liquidation of profitable AI equity and FX carry positions. The dollar has modestly retraced as…
Australia's August employment rose 39.5k but a 0.2ppt participation rebound lifted unemployment to 4.6%, keeping gradual labour-market easing intact. Westpac sees RBA supply assumptions as too weak. The BoJ hiked 25bp to 1.25% and may reach 1.5% by mid-2027.…
Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in August from 4.5% in July, despite employment rising by 39,000 as participation climbed 0.2pp to 67.1%. Part-time jobs increased by 46,000 while full-time fell by 6,000; hours worked rose 0.7% m/m and…
MUFG flags elevated USD/JPY volatility over Japan's autumn holidays after the BOJ hiked to 1.25% with two dissents while the Fed delivered a unanimous 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00%. The pair pushed above 157.50; MUFG's forecast range is 155.00-159.00, with…
Scotiabank's daily notes flag a 'funny season' for manipulated markets before the US midterms, with Trump jawboning oil lower on Iran talks despite unchanged nuclear stockpiles and war risk. Potash and diesel threats appear empty: Belarus has no surplus and a…
Mixed US-Iran headlines left market pricing of geopolitical risk little changed: Trump's UN threat to "annihilate" Iran was offset by reports of "very productive" official talks. Brent fell 1.9% to US$98.5/bbl; LME copper rose 0.6% to US$14,748/mt on firmer…
CBA's Household Spending Insights show Australian spending rose just 0.1% in August, with essentials outpacing discretionary items. Transport led at 2.0% monthly and 9.0% annually, driven by a 3.4% rise at petrol stations after the fuel excise cut ended and…
State Street's weekly outlook sees the Middle East energy crisis as the biggest risk to an otherwise constructive macro backdrop, with US midterms raising escalation odds. The Fed hiked 25bp in September and may hold before possibly reversing one hike by…
Oil's roughly $3/barrel decline drove lower sovereign yields across Europe and North America, with major equities up 0.75-1% while the dollar was little changed. Weekend hints of US-China progress precede Thursday's Xi-Trump meeting, though the note flags an…
Saxo's quick take notes Brent at USD 102, down 1.8% for a fourth session, as Strait of Hormuz shipments reached a six-month high and Saudi Arabia restored its East-West pipeline, though Houthi attacks on Saturday did not reverse the slide. US industrial…
OCBC's daily outlook flags a hawkish Fed after a unanimous 25bp hike, with the 10-year UST near 5.00% and markets pricing two more hikes by year-end. Focus shifts to the 24 September Trump-Xi talks, where a framework to cut tariffs on about $30bn of goods and…
New Zealand's production-based GDP rose 0.2% in Q2 2026, beating the RBNZ's flat forecast and leaving the level about 0.5% above its estimate, though retail spending fell 0.9% in August and house prices declined 1.4% year-on-year. Westpac expects the recovery…
CBA now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% at its 28-29 September meeting, bringing the call forward from November. Higher oil prices (Brent from about US$80 to above US$100), stronger inflation and GDP…