RBA expected to lift interest rates next week: CBA economists
中文标题
CBA经济学家：预计澳储行下周将加息
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
CBA now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% at its 28-29 September meeting, bringing the call forward from November. Higher oil prices (Brent from about US$80 to above US$100), stronger inflation and GDP data, and hawkish RBA commentary, including Governor Bullock's warning that upside inflation risks are materialising, shifted the balance. Markets price about 90% odds of a September move, up from roughly 30% before July CPI. Another hike is not CBA's base case, but a strong Q3 trimmed mean print of 1% or more could put 4.85% on the table; 2027 cuts are now forecast for August and November, pushed back from May.
- Institution
- Commonwealth Bank
- Published
- 09/21/2026
- Research topic
- Crude Oil (WTI) · Inflation
- Time horizon
- Not explicitly stated
Key arguments
- CBA brings forward its RBA rate hike call to September, expecting a 25bp rise to 4.60%.
- Higher oil prices, stronger inflation and GDP data, and hawkish RBA commentary have shifted the balance toward an earlier move.
- Another rate rise is not CBA's base case, but a September-quarter trimmed mean inflation result of 1% or more could put 4.85% on the table.
- CBA still expects 50bp of cuts in 2027, but now starting in August rather than May, followed by November.
Key numbers
- Expected cash rate after September hike
- 4.60%
- Expected rate hike size
- 25bp
- Market-implied probability of September hike
- about 90%
- Brent crude price range
- from about US$80 to above US$100 per barrel
- Possible cash rate if Q3 trimmed mean inflation ≥1%
- 4.85%
Main risks
- Another rate rise remains a clear risk and will depend on upcoming inflation prints and the Middle East conflict.
- A move to 4.85% could produce a larger hit to economic growth and house prices.
- Upward pressure on the neutral rate from AI, renewable energy and defence investment, plus government deficits, could keep rates higher for longer even as growth slows.
Corresponding source evidence
• CBA expects the cash rate to rise 25bp to 4.60% on 29 September.
• Higher oil prices, stronger inflation data and recent RBA commentary have brought the call forward from November.
• Another rate rise remains a clear risk and will depend on upcoming inflation prints and the Middle East conflict.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · WTI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Commonwealth Bank on 09/21/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction