National bank of hungary preview dont lose all hope for cuts
中文标题
匈牙利国家银行前瞻：不要对降息完全失去希望
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
ING expects the National Bank of Hungary to pause at its 21 September meeting, holding the base rate at 5.50%. Although inflation is still favourable, rising external inflation risk and an expected cut in the inflation target from 3% to 2% in two stages argue for a hold. ING still forecasts two more 25bp cuts by end-2026 to a 5.00% terminal rate, but flags this as highly speculative and dependent on energy, fiscal and EU funding developments.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/17/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · US 10Y Treasury
- Time horizon
- Not explicitly stated
Key arguments
- A temporary pause is imminent: the NBH is expected to hold at 5.50% on 21 September despite a supportive inflation picture.
- The expected announcement of a lower inflation target, from 3% to 2% in two stages, has reduced the case for near-term cuts.
- ING forecasts two further 25bp cuts before end-2026, but calls this view highly speculative.
- A more hawkish NBH and a lower inflation target should flatten the curve and support the forint, though sustained gains need relief in global energy prices.
Key numbers
- NBH base rate expected on 21 September
- 5.50%
- ING forecast terminal rate by end-2026
- 5.00%
- Current inflation target; proposed new target
- 3% to 2%
- EUR/HUF level cited
- around 364
- Front end pricing
- less than one full cut
Main risks
- If energy prices keep rising, markets could price rate hikes across CEE, contrary to ING's cut forecast.
- Rising bond yields and a weaker forint add pressure and could erode the risk premium.
- The outlook depends on favourable fiscal planning, EU funding and corporate pricing power.
Corresponding source evidence
During this period, central bank representatives repeatedly stated that the decision on whether to continue cutting rates would be made in light of the September Inflation Report.
Although inflation continues to develop favourably, we believe that, given the expected announcement of a reduction in the inflation target and geopolitical risks, the Monetary Council will keep the base rate at 5.50% in its decision on 21 September to maintain tight monetary policy.
We think that, when the time comes, the central bank will present a trajectory of inflation affected by geopolitical developments.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/17/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction