Qefmar2023 canada
中文标题
qefmar2023 加拿大
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
TD Economics upgrades its 2023 outlook after a better-than-expected start to the year, but still expects sub-par momentum as peak rate impacts are yet to be felt. The failure of two U.S. regional banks removes a 50bps March hike from the table; TD embeds a 25bps increase but sees no urgency and an earlier end to the hiking cycle if confidence is not restored. Global growth slows to 2.8% in 2023, improving on December's forecast.
- Institution
- TD Economics / TD Securities
- Published
- 09/17/2026
- Research topic
- US 10Y Treasury · Fed Policy · Crude Oil (WTI)
- Time horizon
- near-term · 2022 · 2023
Key arguments
- Higher rates have already reversed housing and flattened production; peak impacts are still ahead, keeping growth sub-par.
- The failure of two U.S. regional banks removes a 50bps March hike; TD embeds 25bps but sees no urgency if confidence is not restored.
- Global peak uncertainty has passed on better European energy conditions and China's exit from zero-COVID, but caution remains.
- Regardless of financial events, lower inflation still requires labor-market normalization, including a higher unemployment rate.
Key numbers
- Global growth 2023 forecast
- 2.8%
- Global growth 2022
- 3.3%
- U.S. GDP growth 2023 / 2024 forecast
- 1.3% / 1.0%
- U.S. Q4 2022 GDP growth (annualized)
- 2.7%
- Unemployment rate rise needed to normalize vacancies
- at least 1.2 percentage points
Main risks
- Prolonged loss of market confidence could feed into the real economy, hurting hiring, investment and spending.
- European energy supplies remain a risk, with higher summer electricity costs possible from droughts and French nuclear outages.
- China's deleveraging and property slowdown could make growth disappoint after an initial post-lockdown spurt; stronger China growth is upside risk to oil and inflation.
Corresponding source evidence
A com - mon seasonal pattern that reflected an overlap of a corporate tax date and an increase in net Treasury issuance subsequently caused sharp upward pressure on money markets – far greater than could be explained by these usual seasonal influences.
What should have been a modest strain in money markets faced an amplifier against a backdrop of declining reserves under the Fed’s balance sheet normalization process.
Until market confidence is fully restored and assured on a lon - ger-term basis that there are no more SVB’s lurking, the Fed will prioritize financial stability over the near-term economic data.
· near-term
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
Verify at the original source ↗Loading the document…
Publisher disclaimer
AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · US10Y
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by TD Economics / TD Securities on 09/17/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction