Macro · Macro Rapid Response Eurozone HICP: limited evidence of pass-through so far. But will this continue?
中文标题
宏观 · 宏观快速反应 欧元区HICP：迄今传导证据有限。但这种情况会持续吗？
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Final August eurozone HICP was revised down a tenth to 3.2% y/y, up from 2.9% in July, while core held at 2.4% y/y. Disinflation in services (3.3% to 3.0%) offset a rise in non-energy industrial goods (0.9% to 1.2%). Energy-shock pass-through remains negligible in services; only modest signs appear in energy-intensive goods. Renewed crude and gas tensions are forecast to push headline toward 4% from September, with core averaging 2.4% in 2027 and peaking at 2.5-2.6% early in the year.
- Institution
- Intesa Sanpaolo
- Published
- 09/17/2026
- Research topic
- Crude Oil (WTI) · EUR/USD · Inflation
- Time horizon
- 2025 · 2026 · September 2026 · year-end 2027 · 2027
Key arguments
- Pass-through of the energy shock has so far been negligible in services, with only modest signs in non-energy industrial goods.
- Core disinflation in August came entirely from services (3.3% to 3.0%), while non-energy industrial goods accelerated (0.9% to 1.2%).
- Energy-intensive services inflation fell to 2.9% y/y; excluding travel, energy-sensitive services held stable at 3.3% for a third month.
- Gas price increases pass through more slowly than oil but with potentially more persistent effects, especially as hedging contracts expire.
Key numbers
- August eurozone HICP (final, y/y)
- 3.2%
- July eurozone HICP (y/y)
- 2.9%
- Core inflation (ex food, energy, alcohol, tobacco, y/y)
- 2.4%
- Services inflation (y/y)
- 3.0%
- 2027 core inflation average forecast
- 2.4%
Main risks
- New pressures on crude oil and gas prices could intensify core price pressure in coming quarters and push headline inflation to nearly 4% from September.
- Pass-through could accelerate if the energy shock persists and hedging contracts expire, rapidly raising production costs.
- Rising fertiliser prices could translate into higher food prices, adding to underlying inflation.
Corresponding source evidence
New pressures on crude oil and gas prices will push up headline inflation in the coming months, but they also increase the risk of more intense pressure on core prices in the coming quarters.
The final estimate for the August HICP in the euro area showed a one-tenth downward revision in headline inflation, to 3.2% y/y, although this still represents an acceleration from July’s 2.9 %.
The slowdown in core inflation compared with July is entirely attributable to the services component, which fell from 3.3% to 3.0% y/y, whilst inflation for non-energy industrial goods rose from 0.9% to 1.2%.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · WTI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Intesa Sanpaolo on 09/17/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction