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Scotiabank's daily notes flag a 'funny season' for manipulated markets before the US midterms, with Trump jawboning oil lower on Iran talks despite unchanged nuclear stockpiles and war risk. Potash and diesel threats appear empty: Belarus has no surplus and a…
TD Economics expects US growth slightly above trend in 2026/27 on expansionary fiscal policy, loose financial conditions, AI investment and a resilient consumer, with unemployment drifting to 4% by Q1-2027. Core PCE is not seen reaching 2% until Q4-2027, so…
State Street's weekly outlook sees the Middle East energy crisis as the biggest risk to an otherwise constructive macro backdrop, with US midterms raising escalation odds. The Fed hiked 25bp in September and may hold before possibly reversing one hike by…
Oil's roughly $3/barrel decline drove lower sovereign yields across Europe and North America, with major equities up 0.75-1% while the dollar was little changed. Weekend hints of US-China progress precede Thursday's Xi-Trump meeting, though the note flags an…
Natixis revises its year-end USDCNY forecast to 6.60 from 6.70 after the pair broke below 6.70, a four-year low, with CNY the best-performing Asian currency year-to-date. A large backlog of unconverted export receipts anchors the currency: the goods FX…
The yen weakened sharply after the BoJ's September policy update, with USD/JPY hitting 158.05, before rebounding toward 157.00 after reports the BoJ conducted a rate check. MUFG reads this as a signal of limited tolerance for renewed yen weakness near 160.00.…
RBC expects headline durable goods orders to rise 0.2% m/m in August, with core orders up 0.7% on computer and electrical equipment tied to the AI buildout. Nonresidential investment, led by data center construction, has added nearly one percentage point to…
The Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members preferring a hike. The statement flagged upside inflation risks greater than in July while noting little evidence so far of material second-round effects; November pricing slipped…
State Street expects range-bound G10 FX into September, with the US dollar likely to retrace higher over one to two months despite ranking last in its model. Growth outside the US beat depressed expectations, but energy risks persist. The Japanese yen is…
The FOMC unanimously raised the target range 25bps to 3.75%-4% and guided at least one more hike this year, with a large minority seeing a further 2027 move. Two-year yields rose 14bps in a bear flattener, the dollar firmed and the S&P 500 fell about 0.75%.…
Scotiabank expects the FOMC to hike 25bps on September 16, 2026, with 94 of 110 consensus forecasts agreeing, though the bank calls the case weak and expects dissenters. Markets are calm: bonds and stocks rally, oil is lower, the dollar little changed. The…
Markets brace for an almost certain 25bp Fed hike to 3.75–4.00% after hot core CPI. The 10-year Treasury briefly breached 5%, a 2007 high, before easing; the 2-year hit 4.686%. Equities fell as oil and yields rose. Brent settled near $109, up ~20% in…
Canadian home sales fell 0.7% (sa) in August, erasing most of the prior two months' gains, while new listings rose 3.3%. The sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 49.1% from 51.1%, months of inventory held at 4.8, and the MLS HPI was flat for a third month.…
Canada's housing market paused in August after five months of gains, with seasonally adjusted resales down 0.7% month-over-month, back to May levels. New listings rose 3.3%, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to 49%, still balanced. RBC reads this as a…
Oil is higher but modest, with Brent at US$106 and WTI at US$102, pressing long-end bond yields on inflation fears. Markets price each of the Fed, BoC, ECB, BoE and BoJ for roughly 50bps of hikes by year-end. Equities slip broadly. Canadian existing home…
Credit spreads were calm and tightened last week even as the UST 1-10Y curve rose by 18-27bps w/w, suggesting the move was a rates shock rather than a credit shock. Asia USD IG OAS narrowed 1bp to 56bps, HY 11bps to 313bps. SGD credit total returns fell 0.18%…
Canada's economy rebounded in Q2 2026 and the unemployment rate fell to a two-year low, but RBC expects full-year growth of only 1%, held back by re-escalated US tariffs and high energy prices from Middle East conflict. Cautious optimism rests on per-capita…
Scotiabank Economics reports that all higher-frequency Canadian core inflation measures exceed the 2% target, with traditional core CPI at 3.9% m/m SAAR in August 2026. Headline CPI was -0.1% m/m and 3.0% y/y, in line with consensus. The output gap is…
Canadian headline CPI held at 3% y/y in August, with energy up 15.4% and gasoline 23% above year-ago levels. Food inflation eased to 2.8%, the lowest since late 2024, and grocery growth lagged overall inflation for the first time in over two years. Core…
Oil gained roughly 2–3% after a Saudi pipeline shutdown and postponed Middle East talks with Iran, pressuring stocks and bonds. Equities fell across major indexes, with Nasdaq down about 1.5%. US Treasury yields were little changed after Friday's CPI-driven…