CNY: Riding the wave of strength
中文标题
人民币：乘势走强
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Natixis revises its year-end USDCNY forecast to 6.60 from 6.70 after the pair broke below 6.70, a four-year low, with CNY the best-performing Asian currency year-to-date. A large backlog of unconverted export receipts anchors the currency: the goods FX settlement ratio stayed high at 69.7% in August, while importers' FX buying fell to 57.8% of payments. The PBoC fixed the yuan stronger for a ninth straight session, signaling tolerance for gradual appreciation ahead of the Trump-Xi summit.
- Institution
- Natixis
- Published
- 09/21/2026
- Research topic
- US Dollar (DXY)
- Time horizon
- Not explicitly stated
Key arguments
- A sizeable backlog of unconverted trade receipts anchors CNY, with the August goods FX settlement ratio high at 69.7% and importer FX buying slowing to 57.8% of payments from 60.7% in July.
- The PBoC strengthened its daily fixing for a ninth consecutive session, the longest since November 2023, even amid broader USD strength, signaling greater tolerance for appreciation.
- The timing ahead of the Trump-Xi summit is tactically significant, suggesting Beijing is willing to manage external pressures and trade imbalances before potential tariff talks.
- External-sector support, including 25% y/y August export growth and a first-eight-month trade surplus near USD806bn, is outweighing domestic softness and the roughly 2.8% annualized negative carry.
Key numbers
- Revised year-end USDCNY forecast
- 6.60 (previously 6.70)
- USDCNY low
- Below 6.70, lowest in over four years
- August goods FX settlement ratio
- 69.7%
- Importers' FX buying share of payments
- 57.8% in August vs 60.7% in July and 75.3% in January 2025
- First-eight-month trade surplus
- Approaching USD806bn; August exports +25% y/y
Main risks
- Chinese domestic demand continues to weaken, making exports even more important to growth and complicating further appreciation.
- Low domestic yields and the wide US-China rate differential impose an annualized carry cost of about 2.8%, leaving room for periodic volatility.
- The extent of further appreciation is uncertain and may depend on reciprocal US concessions, including on tariffs.
Corresponding source evidence
We previously argued that in 2H26 CNY will gradually strengthen against the USD (Keep calm and carry on –why CNY resilience will persist ).
We continue to see this trend in the latest net FX sales data, further amplified by a marked slowdown in importers' conversion of CNY into USD.
Given that the pace of yuan strength has exceeded our previous expectations, we are adjusting our year-end USDCNY forecast to 6.60 from 6.70 previously.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · DXY
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NatixisCNY: Riding the wave of strength | 09/21/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| ING THINKfx daily inflation versus ai overbuild story dominates | 10/16/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| MUFGcombined 16 oct 2026 | 10/16/2026 | Bearish | — | this week |
| MUFGWarsh focuses on AI rather than Fed policy · FX Daily Snapshot | 10/16/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Natixis on 09/21/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction