GLOBAL ECONOMICSDAILY POINTS

Key arguments

• Oil's rise, though modest, keeps long-run bond yields elevated on inflation fears and firms market pricing of about 50bps of hikes from each major central bank by year-end.
• Canadian existing home sales posted a first drop in five months (-0.7% m/m SA), possibly a breather after four gains; buyers may be substituting toward surging new home sales on preferential tax changes.
• China's economy remains soft: total investment down 7.2% ytd/ytd and property down about 20%, prompting interest in investing abroad; industrial output is a rare bright spot, partly on exporting excess production.
• The UK labour market stays soft with payrolls falling a seventh straight month and wage growth volatile, unlikely to decide BoE policy amid an expected Thursday hold.

Corresponding source evidence

1. Stocks are falling basically everywhere but not by much and on rate and inflation fears plus AI fears either having to do with concern about slowing momentum or the cheery news from AI researchers that all profits will go to zero by decade ’s end as the least of humanity ’s fate.
2. I view the list of projects that are a combination of being already in the works, reasonably expected and hypothetical wishes to be a downpayment on PM Carney ’s C$1 trillion investment goal over the next five years.
3. New listings were up by 3.3% m/m, the sales -to-new -listings ratio fell two full points to 49.1% and remains roughly in balanced territory, and months supply was unchanged at 4.8.