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Oil retreated as Trump signalled a Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" and proposed direct US diesel imports from Russia, with Brent down 1.1% to USD 103.60/b and WTI at USD 90/b. Middle East risk stayed elevated after a Strait of Hormuz tanker attack and…
SMBC's October 2026 outlook sees real GDP growth decelerating from 2.6% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, with quarterly growth slowing from 3.9% in Q3 2026 to 1.6-1.7% through 2027. Core PCE inflation is projected to ease from 3.1% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 2.3% in…
TD Economics' October 9, 2026 weekly review flags the September CPI report (Oct 14) as the key event, with consensus at 3.6% y/y headline and 2.5% y/y core. Oil traded in a $88-93/bbl WTI range as markets weighed Hormuz flows, Middle East tensions and…
The Fed is expected to hike an additional 80bp through December 2027, per SOFR futures, while PCE inflation reaches 3.4% and core PCE 3.1% Q4/Q4 in 2026. GDP is forecast at 2.3% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, with unemployment near 4.2% and payroll growth cooling…
SMBC argues the labor market is balanced at full employment with unemployment near 4.2% and wage growth decelerating, possibly because AI-related job insecurity is suppressing worker bargaining power, though low demand in a low-hiring environment is an…
MUFG expects Asia FX to trade range-bound in the week ahead, driven by US September CPI, Treasury yields and China activity, inflation and credit data. A softer US inflation print would support high-yielding Asian currencies and help stem equity outflows,…
Natixis expects September core CPI at 0.19% m/m and headline CPI at 0.6% m/m, both in line with consensus, reinforcing its view that underlying inflation keeps drifting lower. It sees little evidence of reacceleration: tariff and energy shocks are acyclical…
ING expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore to tighten policy modestly, lifting the SGD NEER band slope to about 1.5% annual appreciation, alongside robust third-quarter GDP. India's CPI is seen accelerating sharply to 5.4% on food and fuel. China's CPI…
August US producer prices were mixed: headline PPI rose 0.4% m/m and core 0.2% m/m, with 10bp upward revisions to July. Wholesaler margins received climbed 4.5% y/y, above the 2010-2019 range that prevailed alongside 2% inflation. Using today's PPI detail,…
Crude tanker earnings have reached unprecedented levels above $500,000 per day, ten times the 2025 average, as the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption force rerouting and protected convoys. Freight from Ras Tanura to Rotterdam surged above $35/bbl from…
New Zealand's recovery is uneven but resilient, with filled jobs up 0.9% in the year to August and agriculture driving regional growth. Inflation pressures persist in rate-insensitive sectors; annual CPI hit 4.1% in June and fuel costs are rising again.…
Brazil's general election leads a heavy Latam week. Polls put Lula about 4-5ppts ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro, with a second round on October 25. September CPI is seen rising 0.1-0.3ppts across Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Brazil. Scotiabank expects the BCRP to…
US nonfarm payrolls rose just 29k in September, versus 90k expected, with 60k downward revisions. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, and wage growth slowed to 3% year-on-year. Manufacturing added jobs for a fourth straight month, while services…
In the week starting 2 October 2026, ING expects Poland's NBP to leave its reference rate at 3.75% on 7 October as headline CPI reached 4.0% YoY, with fuel and household energy adding around 2.5pp. Hungary's Wednesday inflation is seen rising strongly, fuel…
Westpac's Cliff Notes flags a 25bp RBA hike to 4.60%, with a follow-up in November viewed as likely if Middle East conflict does not resolve. Underlying CPI rose 0.2% m/m (3.4% y/y). US PCE eased but core stays at 3.0% y/y; Japan's Tankan supports a possible…
European diesel imports face mounting pressure from a possible US export ban, the loss of Russian and Chinese supplies and low stocks. Since late February, crude is up 46% while European diesel has doubled. Europe, importing 46% of its diesel with 40% from…
MUFG's calendar previews Japan data from late September to early October. Industrial production is estimated up 1.1% MoM for August, retail sales up 2.1% YoY, and housing starts up 6.4% YoY, with growth slowing on weak air-conditioner demand, high prices, and…
State Street argues that although higher US sovereign yields have lifted income, the extra yield further out the curve may not compensate for duration risk. With sticky inflation, resilient growth and fiscal pressures, markets price a higher policy path; the…
Australia's annual CPI inflation rose to 4.0% in August from 3.5% in July, driven by housing (+5.7%) and transport (+5.6%), with automotive fuel up 14.8% in the month. Trimmed mean inflation held at 3.6% for a third month. The data followed the RBA's 25bp…
China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September, the first expansion in three months and in line with consensus. The non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly returned to 50.2 versus 49.2 expected. Production hit a 2026 high of 51.7, while price…