Cee cca week ahead polish rate decision and inflation data from hungary and turkey
中文标题
中东欧与中西亚一周前瞻：波兰利率决议及匈牙利和土耳其通胀数据
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
In the week starting 2 October 2026, ING expects Poland's NBP to leave its reference rate at 3.75% on 7 October as headline CPI reached 4.0% YoY, with fuel and household energy adding around 2.5pp. Hungary's Wednesday inflation is seen rising strongly, fuel driving about 75% of the acceleration, prompting a 2026 forecast revision from 1.7% to 1.8-1.9%. Czech September CPI should jump on energy, and Turkey's annual inflation is forecast to fall to 30.0% from 31.5%.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 10/02/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation
- Time horizon
- 2026
Key arguments
- Poland's NBP is expected to hold rates at 3.75%; while headline CPI at 4.0% YoY exceeds the 2.5% +/-1pp target, ING sees the overshoot as an external energy shock without second-round effects.
- Hungary's September inflation is set to accelerate, with fuel prices accounting for around 75% of the increase and HUF weakness adding to imported goods and FX-sensitive services prices.
- Czech September CPI is expected to jump mainly on energy, plus higher fuel, regulated prices and food, while August industrial output, trade and retail sales were solid.
- Turkey's annual inflation is forecast at 30.0% for September from 31.5% in August, with a monthly rise of 2.0% led by food and education despite higher transport.
Key numbers
- Poland NBP reference rate (expected unchanged)
- 3.75%
- Poland September headline CPI YoY
- 4.0%
- Hungary full-year 2026 inflation forecast revision
- from 1.7% to 1.8-1.9%
- Turkey August annual inflation (prior)
- 31.5%
- Turkey September annual inflation forecast
- 30.0%
Main risks
- Hungary's inflation path may deviate from the nowcast, requiring an upward revision to the 2026 forecast; no major second-round effects are currently expected, but HUF weakness and imported-price pressures could persist.
- Poland's NBP may begin debating tightening in November with new staff projections; ING still expects unchanged rates for the rest of 2026, though sees scope for 50bp of hikes in early 2027.
- Czech and Hungarian activity data remain uncertain given the summer heatwave, the near-full Paks nuclear shutdown and voluntary energy reductions, making the industrial output decline and retail sales offset hard to gauge.
Corresponding source evidence
On the one hand, headline CPI rose to 4.0%YoY in September, moving well above the central bank's 2.5% target (+/- 1 percentage point).
Core inflation likely declined last month, while fuel and household energy prices account for around 2.5 percentage points of annual inflation.
Hungary: Higher fuel prices set to push inflation up We expect the favourable underlying budget performance to continue in Monday's data release.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ING THINKCee cca week ahead polish rate decision and inflation data from hungary and turkey | 10/02/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| Westpac / Westpac IQWEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY · Downward revisions to 2027 outlook | 10/18/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| NatixisInflation Rises, Rates Ease | 10/16/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| SMBCUS Rates Strategy Daily · An [AI]nflationary Buildout | 10/16/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 10/02/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction