US MacroeconomicsJoseph Lavorgna 2026 2027 2026 2027

中文标题

美国宏观经济 · Joseph Lavorgna 2026 2027 2026 2027

SMBC10/09/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

SMBC's October 2026 outlook sees real GDP growth decelerating from 2.6% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, with quarterly growth slowing from 3.9% in Q3 2026 to 1.6-1.7% through 2027. Core PCE inflation is projected to ease from 3.1% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 2.3% in 2027, with PCE at 2.1%. The Fed funds upper bound is forecast to rise to 4.75% by Q2 2027, while the 10-year yield is seen peaking at 5.29% in Q3 2026 before settling at 4.50% by Q4 2027.

Institution: SMBC
Published: 10/09/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

Real GDP growth is expected to slow from 2.6% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, with quarterly growth decelerating to 1.6-1.7% by late 2027.
Core PCE inflation is forecast to decline from 3.1% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 2.3% in 2027, with headline PCE at 2.1%.
The Fed is projected to raise the upper bound of the fed funds rate to 4.75% by Q2 2027, maintaining that level through year-end.
The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to peak at 5.29% in Q3 2026 and then decline to 4.50% by Q4 2027.

Key numbers

Real GDP Q4/Q4 2026: 2.6%
Real GDP Q4/Q4 2027: 1.7%
Core PCE Q4/Q4 2027: 2.3%
Fed funds upper bound Q2 2027: 4.75%
10-year yield Q3 2026 peak: 5.29%

Main risks

Forecasts are based on assumptions that may not materialize; accuracy is not guaranteed.
Inflation could prove more persistent, delaying the projected Fed tightening path.
Economic growth may slow more sharply than anticipated, pressuring risk assets.

Corresponding source evidence

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