National bank of poland preview inflation at 40 yoy but mpc unlikely to act yet
中文标题
波兰国家银行前瞻：通胀同比达40，但货币政策委员会暂不太可能行动
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
The National Bank of Poland is expected to hold its policy rate at 3.75% on 7 October despite September CPI at 4.0% YoY. Fuel-market intervention (lower excise duty and VAT) will subtract 0.7pp from CPI through year-end. Price pressures appear limited to fuel; core inflation and second-round effects are watched. November brings new projections. ING sees no action before 1Q27, when two 25bp hikes may come, possibly pre-emptive given Middle East instability.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 10/06/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation
- Time horizon
- 2027 · year-end 2026
Key arguments
- We expect the MPC to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.75% on 7 October.
- Fuel-market intervention (lower excise duty and VAT until end-2026) will subtract 0.7pp from CPI, keeping inflation near the upper end of the tolerance band.
- Inflation composition suggests price pressures are still essentially limited to fuel, giving the MPC time to wait.
- We see November as the first possible meeting for a policy change, with rate hikes (two 25bp moves) expected in 1Q27, possibly pre-emptive due to Middle East instability.
Key numbers
- NBP policy rate (current)
- 3.75%
- September CPI YoY
- 4.0%
- CPI reduction from fuel intervention
- -0.7pp
- Expected rate hikes in 1Q27
- two 25bp moves
- First possible policy change meeting
- November 2026
Main risks
- Inflation may become entrenched at an elevated level if Middle East instability prolongs high commodity prices.
- Second-round effects could emerge if core inflation does not remain stable.
- The fuel-market intervention lowers headline CPI temporarily, potentially masking underlying pressures.
Corresponding source evidence
We expect the Council to leave the National Bank of Poland's policy rate unchanged at 3.75%.
We believe there is still time to wait-and-see, and we expect rate hikes in the first quarter of 2027 (two 25bp moves).
· 2027The government intervention in the fuel market will deduct 0.7pp from CPI, but it is likely to remain around the upper end of the tolerance band around the target in the coming months.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 10/06/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction