Where are Saudi Arabia and UAE economies standing after seven months into the Iran war?

中文标题

伊朗战争爆发七个月后，沙特阿拉伯与阿联酋经济处境如何？

Natixis10/06/2026updated 10/17/2026

Unknown economy

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Saudi Arabia's real GDP contracted 4.7% yoy in Q2 2026, the weakest since 2012 excluding Covid, as oil activity fell 24.8% yoy and non-oil growth slowed to 0.9%. The IMF cut 2026 growth to 1.7%, but 1H26 actual prints -0.87%, so full-year growth may head toward zero even if war eases in Q4. The UAE slowed to 3.0% yoy in Q1 2026 from 8.5%, with non-oil activity adding 3.8pp and oil subtracting 0.8pp; industrial production fell 12.5% yoy but PMI rose to 54.8 in August. Natixis is cautiously more positive on the UAE's short-term outlook.

Institution: Natixis
Published: 10/06/2026
Research topic: Crude Oil (WTI) · US Dollar (DXY)
Time horizon: Q2 2026 · 2026

Crude Oil (WTI) · WTI US Dollar (DXY) · DXY

Key arguments

Saudi Arabia's contraction is concentrated in oil, but weak non-oil growth and soft private consumption signal domestic demand has lost momentum.
Saudi exports depend on oil prices as volumes are capped; oil export value fell 13% in July, a second monthly drop, and non-oil exports have shrunk since the war began.
The UAE's diversified economy is coping better: financial and insurance accelerated, and port, logistics and infrastructure spending may support growth.
Foreign investors have scaled back Gulf exposure, with Saudi foreign liabilities down $8.7bn between February and July, though reserves remain ample.

Key numbers

Saudi Arabia Q2 2026 real GDP growth: -4.7% yoy
Saudi Arabia Q2 2026 oil activity growth: -24.8% yoy
Saudi oil export value, July 2026: -13% yoy
UAE Q1 2026 real GDP growth: 3.0% yoy
UAE industrial production, Q1 2026: -12.5% yoy

Main risks

Renewed Houthi attacks could further disrupt Red Sea transit and worsen the outlook.
Global investors are scaling back appetite for Gulf assets, widening spreads on Saudi dollar financing.
Weak private consumption and soft non-oil momentum may keep Saudi recovery oil-led rather than broad-based.

Corresponding source evidence

The non-oil PMI is back in expansion though below its pre-war pace, and the gap between oil and non-oil output shows a recovery led by oil, not broad-based.
The renewed attacks by Houthis could make the outlook even more difficult, and the widening spread in Saudi’s dollar financing could exert more pressure.
Furthermore, UAE’s $30bn investment plan on ports, logistics and infrastructure may provide a consistent push for growth.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

Verify at the original source ↗