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OCBC's 21 September 2026 snapshot notes the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 5% as markets price two more hikes by year-end despite the Fed's 25bp move. US IG and HY spreads tightened 1bp and 2bp to 75bp and 267bp; Asia HY widened 10bp to 323bp. Traders…
Romania's potential GDP growth has fallen to about 2.0% from 3.5%-3.75% before the pandemic, ING estimates, with actual GDP contracting in 2026 and growth around 2.2% in 2027-2028. A large investment cycle — public investment exceptionally high, gross fixed…
France's fiscal position has deteriorated: the government now expects a 2026 deficit of 5.4% of GDP versus a 4.6% objective, and 6.5% in 2027 without new measures. Prime Minister Lecornu announced a €54bn effort to cap the 2027 deficit at 5% of GDP, but the…
Natixis reviews the end of Germany's super-election year with results in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (MWP) and Berlin that delivered fresh defeats to the federal governing parties. Die Linke won Berlin with 25.7% while the AfD secured 38.2% in MWP, leaving…
Brent crude fell about 2% to below $102/bbl and WTI eased to around $98/bbl as profit-taking and hopes for constructive UNGA and Trump-Xi talks improved sentiment, even as Saudi Aramco warned of possible cargo allocation cuts after drone damage to the…
ING now expects the ECB and Fed to hike in December and keeps its year-end EUR/USD target at 1.160. Oil is the key FX driver this week, with Trump meeting Gulf states and Xi. USD/JPY upside risks remain, with 160.0 plausible but intervention risk elevated.…
OCBC's daily outlook flags a hawkish Fed after a unanimous 25bp hike, with the 10-year UST near 5.00% and markets pricing two more hikes by year-end. Focus shifts to the 24 September Trump-Xi talks, where a framework to cut tariffs on about $30bn of goods and…
New Zealand's production-based GDP rose 0.2% in Q2 2026, beating the RBNZ's flat forecast and leaving the level about 0.5% above its estimate, though retail spending fell 0.9% in August and house prices declined 1.4% year-on-year. Westpac expects the recovery…
The yen weakened sharply after the BoJ's September policy update, with USD/JPY hitting 158.05, before rebounding toward 157.00 after reports the BoJ conducted a rate check. MUFG reads this as a signal of limited tolerance for renewed yen weakness near 160.00.…
Euro area headline HICP rose to 3.2% y/y in August, the highest since September 2023, driven by a 14% energy inflation surge, while core eased to 2.4% from 2.5% as services fell to 3.0%. MUFG sees no clear second-round effects, but upside risks from gas…
ING expects the National Bank of Hungary to pause at its 21 September meeting, holding the base rate at 5.50%. Although inflation is still favourable, rising external inflation risk and an expected cut in the inflation target from 3% to 2% in two stages argue…
The Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members preferring a hike. The statement flagged upside inflation risks greater than in July while noting little evidence so far of material second-round effects; November pricing slipped…
Eurostat's final estimate puts euro area headline HICP at 3.25% yoy in August, up from 2.94% in July, with core easing to 2.40% from 2.48%. Energy jumped to 14.28% yoy, contributing 1.30 pp, mainly liquid fuels at 1.04 pp, while services slowed to 3.03% yoy…
ABN AMRO has downgraded its EUR/USD forecasts to 1.15 after the Fed hiked its policy rate by 25bp and signalled a more hawkish path than expected. The bank now sees the pair trading broadly sideways until Q2 2027, as higher-for-longer energy prices and…
The Fed hiked 25bp and the dot plot showed strong support for another hike this year, sending DXY up 0.6% to a two-month high and widening the two-year swap differential by 15bp. ING sees near-term USD upside, EUR/USD downside toward 1.132-1.135, BoE on hold…
State Street expects range-bound G10 FX into September, with the US dollar likely to retrace higher over one to two months despite ranking last in its model. Growth outside the US beat depressed expectations, but energy risks persist. The Japanese yen is…
The FOMC unanimously raised the target range 25bps to 3.75%-4% and guided at least one more hike this year, with a large minority seeing a further 2027 move. Two-year yields rose 14bps in a bear flattener, the dollar firmed and the S&P 500 fell about 0.75%.…
The Fed delivered a widely anticipated 25bp hike, leaving the long end broadly steady near 4.95%. ING maintains a bearish stance on long bonds, expecting the UST 10yr yield to break back above 5% and target 5.25%, supported by sticky inflation, fiscal…
The FOMC raised the policy rate by 25bps to a 4.00% upper bound in a unanimous September decision, the first hike since 2023. Natixis views this as the path of least resistance that buys time to assess whether August's upside inflation surprise was temporary.…
Scotiabank expects the FOMC to hike 25bps on September 16, 2026, with 94 of 110 consensus forecasts agreeing, though the bank calls the case weak and expects dissenters. Markets are calm: bonds and stocks rally, oil is lower, the dollar little changed. The…