Fx daily new central bank calls unchanged eur usd view

中文标题

外汇日报：新的央行预期，欧元/美元观点不变

ING THINK09/21/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

ING now expects the ECB and Fed to hike in December and keeps its year-end EUR/USD target at 1.160. Oil is the key FX driver this week, with Trump meeting Gulf states and Xi. USD/JPY upside risks remain, with 160.0 plausible but intervention risk elevated. CEE currencies stay bearish after Poland's downgrade.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 09/21/2026
Research topic: US Dollar (DXY) · Crude Oil (WTI) · Fed Policy
Time horizon: this week · this year · next month · near-term

US Dollar (DXY) · DXY Crude Oil (WTI) · WTI Fed Policy · FED

Key arguments

We now expect both the ECB and the Fed to hike in December, but keep the EUR/USD profile unchanged, targeting 1.160 for year-end.
Oil should dominate FX this week; Brent lacks encouraging news to fall back below $100/bbl.
USD/JPY risks remain on the upside; a return to 160.0 looks consistent with prevailing conditions, though intervention risk is elevated.
CEE currencies remain weak with a bearish outlook, hindered by energy prices and a stronger dollar.

Key numbers

EUR/USD year-end target: 1.160
Market pricing for next Fed hike: 13bp
EUR and USD front-end swaps priced by year-end: 33-37bp
NBH policy rate expected: 5.50%
EUR/CZK fair value: 24.300–24.350

Main risks

Brent moving back towards $110/bbl and markets increasing pricing for an October Fed hike would make an EUR/USD retest of 1.1320-30 realistic.
Intervention risk remains clearly elevated for USD/JPY, with Japanese authorities focusing on the pace of moves.
Poland's rating downgrade and limited US-Iran progress could keep CEE currencies under pressure.

Corresponding source evidence

Here, we discuss our new calls and why we re keeping our EUR/USD profile unchanged, still targeting 1.160 for year-end.
We expect oil to dominate as an FX driver this week, with President Trump expected to meet Gulf state members and President Xi Jinping. · this week
USD/JPY risks remain on the upside We see mostly downside risks for EUR/USD this week USD: Big summits this week The dollar lost some ground on Friday after a reported Bank of Japan rate check (more in the JPY section below), but in our view it remains on solid footing. · this week

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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