Fx daily as hawkish as it gets
中文标题
外汇日报：鹰派至极
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
The Fed hiked 25bp and the dot plot showed strong support for another hike this year, sending DXY up 0.6% to a two-month high and widening the two-year swap differential by 15bp. ING sees near-term USD upside, EUR/USD downside toward 1.132-1.135, BoE on hold at 3.75%, and USD/JPY stabilising around 156-157, with oil and Gulf de-escalation pivotal.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/17/2026
- Research topic
- Crude Oil (WTI) · US Dollar (DXY) · Inflation
- Time horizon
- this year · near-term · short-term
Key arguments
- Fed hiked 25bp with a hawkish dot plot: 12 of 18 members see one more hike, four see two; growth and inflation revised higher, unemployment lower.
- Stronger US rates lift the dollar; market prices 13bp for October and 32bp for December, with room to price more if data or oil stay hot.
- EUR/USD short-term fair value fell to 1.150, 1% lower than a week ago; no strong technical support before 1.132-1.135.
- BoE expected on hold at 3.75% with a 6-3 split and dovish communication, weakening GBP; CEE FX stays under pressure from broad dollar strength.
Key numbers
- Fed hike
- 25bp
- DXY move
- +0.6% to a two-month high
- Two-year swap rate jump
- 10-12bp
- EUR/USD short-term fair value
- 1.150
- EUR/USD technical support zone
- 1.132-1.135
Main risks
- Sustained oil strength or further Gulf escalation could keep EUR/USD fair value falling and DXY supported.
- BoE dovish communication may weaken sterling more than expected, particularly versus the euro.
- CEE currencies could face deeper losses if US-Iran tensions persist or regional central banks delay hikes.
Corresponding source evidence
EUR/USD downside risks remain, with oil prices and risk sentiment in the driver’s seat.
A BoJ hike tomorrow may not help the yen structurally The dollar rallied across the board following Wednesday's Fed hike USD: On a structurally stronger position Everything about yesterday’s FOMC meeting was hawkish.
The widely expected 25bp hike was accompanied by a dot plot showing strong consensus for another hike this year.
· this year
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · WTI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/17/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction