German Regional Elections: Another Election, Another Major Defeat for the CDU

中文标题

德国地区选举：又一场选举，基民盟再遭重大挫败

Natixis09/21/2026updated 10/17/2026

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Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Natixis reviews the end of Germany's super-election year with results in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (MWP) and Berlin that delivered fresh defeats to the federal governing parties. Die Linke won Berlin with 25.7% while the AfD secured 38.2% in MWP, leaving the CDU below the 5% threshold in a regional election for the first time. Natixis expects SPD/Green/Die Linke coalitions in both regions.

Institution: Natixis
Published: 09/21/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: September 2026 · April 2027 · 2022

Key arguments

Far-left Die Linke doubled its vote in Berlin to win with 25.7%, relegating CDU and SPD to second and fifth places.
AfD set a record 38.2% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, benefitting from the fragmentation of the federal coalition parties.
Natixis expects both regions to be governed by SPD/Green/Die Linke coalitions.
Failure to clear 5% in MWP intensifies pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz after prior defeats.

Key numbers

Berlin: Die Linke vote share: 25.7%
Berlin: CDU vote share / change: 18.8% (-9.4 points)
Berlin: SPD vote share / change: 12.1% (-6.3 points)
MWP: AfD vote share: 38.2%
MWP: SPD vote share: 35.5%

Main risks

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Document contains extensive disclaimers and limitations on liability; it is for informational purposes only.
The report provides no explicit market or asset forecasts, limiting direct investment implications.

Corresponding source evidence

Distribution may also be restricted in certain jurisdictions; recipients are required to inform themselves about 21 September 2026 EMEA M ACRO S NAPSHOT German Regional Elections: Another Election, Another Major Defeat for the CDU The elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (MWP) and Berlin marked the end of Germany’s super-election year. · September 2026
For the CDU, failing to pass the 5% threshold in MWP will intensify pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz, following his party’s defeat in Saxony-Anhalt and Baden-Württemberg.
The North Rhine-Westphalia regional election on 27 April 2027, will be acrucial test. · April 2027

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